The Daily Mail is today unveiling its 2024 election model, which gives our deepest look yet at who we think will win the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
With two months to go to decision day, it predicts that we are headed for a political cliffhanger with the final result coming down to just 20,500 votes in Pennsylvania.
And it is Trump, the former president, who is on course to edge it, securing wins in the crucial battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the most crucial of all.
Harris is predicted to win Wisconsin and Michigan, giving Trump an electoral college margin of 287 to 251.
But even that close result is balanced on a knife edge. The model crunches data from the past 80 years, including election results, polls and economic statistics, to find that Trump’s probability of victory is only 50.5 percent.
And the model’s algorithm can even count the votes needed. In Pennsylvania, Trump could lose its pivotal 19 electoral college votes if just 20,500 people ditch him in favor of Harris.
Overall, Trump’s chances have plunged since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race to be replaced by Harris.
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The model, run by polling firm J.L. Partners, had Trump on course for an easy victory. He clocked an 87 percent chance of winning on the day in July before Biden announced he was ending his reelection run.
It has not all gone Harris’s way, however.
At times her chance of victory surged ahead of Trump in August before dropping back in the past week or so.
Even so, in a reflection of the complexities of the Electoral College system, the model still gives her a 66 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
James Johnson, Co-Founder of J.L. Partners, said: ‘This is the closest U.S. election in 24 years and is going to probably come down to a few thousand votes in the state of Pennsylvania.
‘But in this first update from our model—which uniquely controls for who is on the ballot in each state—it is Trump that edges it.
‘Harris has lost steam since the DNC and her CNN interview, and is losing enough votes—even if a very small amount—to left-wing candidates to put Trump over the line in critical swing states like Pennsylvania and NV.’
Johnson said Harris is rebuilding half of the Democrats’ ‘Blue Wall’ in Michigan and Wisconsin, but that will not be enough for her to win.
‘What is most remarkable is how far ahead Trump was before Biden dropped out,’ he added.
Our model had him at a near-90 percent chance: now that is down to 50 percent.
‘This race is going to go down to the wire, but it’s Trump right now who has it by a hair’s breadth.’
The model will be updated regularly from now until polling day giving DailyMail.com readers a front-row seat for every twist and turn of the race.
And it includes special factors that Johnson believes makes it more accurate than rival versions elsewhere.
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will go down to the wire
In particular, it pays careful attention to the other names on the ballot in each state, such as Green candidate Jill Stein, and independents Cornell West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who remains on many ballots despite suspending his run and endorsing Trump.
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The model makes an allowance for Stein and West tending to help Trump in Pennsylvania, for example, where they will be expected to draw support from leftist voters who might otherwise back Harris.
In contrast Kennedy has tried to limit his damage to Trump since dropping out, by withdrawing from ballots in states that will be competitive.
Harris has enjoyed a honeymoon since becoming the Democratic candidate. She has reversed a two-point deficit endured by Biden, take a lead of two to three points in national polls, and she has seen donations come flooding in from supporters.
Trump has played down her gains, and last week told DailyMail.com he was happy with how his campaign was going after securing Kennedy’s endorsement.