Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before the polls close across the U.S.
And he says it’s ‘literally closer than a coin flip,’ as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to a close Tuesday.
After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the majority of match ups.
‘The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent,’ Silver said on Tuesday morning.
According to his model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015% of the simulations compared to Trump’s 49.985%. That equates to Harris winning 40,012 simulations to Trump’s 39,718.
‘When I say the odds in are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating,’ Silver went on.
Trump and his wife Melania cast their ballots in Palm Beach, Florida, Tuesday morning. The ex-president cast doubt on there being a quick result tonight because of the tight race in swing states.
Donald Trump said he felt ‘confident’ after he cast his vote in Palm Beach, Florida, even as polls show the race between him and Kamala Harris is virtually tied
‘It is crazy,’ the former president said. ‘I am just hearing in certain states it is going to be a long time.’
He specifically mentioned Pennsylvania, the battleground state that could decide the winner. Polls show the race there is tied. There have also been reports of problems scanning ballots in Cambria and Bedford counties, two of the most-Republican counties in the state.
‘I’m hearing in Pennsylvania they won’t have an answer until two or three days from now. I think it’s an absolute outrage if that’s the case,’ Trump noted.
‘In certain states it is going to be a long time and it won’t even be close. It won’t be that close. They say I will win the state but it will take a long time to certify it.’
He touted the ‘big lead’ that he said Republicans have on Election Day, as GOP voters typically in-person vote more frequently than Democrats.
‘I would think we are going to have a very big victory today,’ Trump noted.
Silver went on to say that he’s never seen ‘anything like this’ in all his years of predicting elections, including five presidential races and nine general elections.
Donald Trump and Melania visit his campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach
The outlying races were Electoral College ties 269 – 269 that eventually resulted in Trump victories due to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ involvement in the process in this specific scenario.
The nail-biting race is one of the closest in history and is likely to be decided by a couple of thousand votes in smatterings across swing states, as indicated by the pollsters’ final prediction.
Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan will all be closely watched today as votes trickle in.
Those states are the crucial swing states that will ultimately decide the outcome.
The analysis found that on November 5, Harris led Trump in national polling averages by just one point, up 48.6% to 47.6%.
It also shows that the Republican holds leads across all of the critical swing states except Michigan where he is down 1.2 points and Wisconsin where he is behind by one point.
Trump will be watching the Election Day results from his home in Florida
Nate Silver speaks at ‘On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018’ Midterm Election Panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City
A Trump supporter holds a sign on Election Day
This is in line with the final predictions from major election models.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds a 1.2 point lead on Election Day.
The RealClearPolitics presidential voting average, meanwhile, has Harris up just one tenth of a percentage point, leading 48.7% to Trump’s 48.6%.
One survey presented data that may scare the Republican heading into Election Day.
Kamala Harris has cut Donald Trump’s double-digit lead among male voters in half to single digits, a final Marist poll found.
Voter breakdowns have long shown a gender gap with women supporting Harris and men supporting Trump. Harris making up ground with the male vote would be a troubling sign for the former president.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Talking Stick Resort Amphitheatre, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024, in Phoenix
A Nevada resident wears an 'I voted' sticker after exiting the polls
Voters line up to cast their ballots at Allegiant Stadium on November 05, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Americans cast their ballots today in the presidential race between Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as multiple state elections
At the beginning of October, Trump had a 16-point lead among men – 57% to Harris's 41%, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll.
Now Harris had cut that down to just four points: she has 47% to Trump's 51%, according to the latest numbers released Monday.
However betting markets show favorable odds for Trump.
On the forecasting site Predictit he overtook Kamala Harris last night and has surged this morning. The site now gives Trump a 10 percent lead in terms of his chances of winning the election.
It reflects similar movement on other betting sites like Polymarket, where the Republican was similarly up by ten points.