If 2016 was the education election, when voters divided depending on whether or not they had been to college, then 2024 is shaping up to be a battle of the sexes.
The full extent of the gender divide in America is laid bare in the latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners.
It found that former President Donald Trump has widened his lead with men, and now has a 22-point advantage over his opponent among male voters.
At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris has extended her lead among female voters, and is up by 14 points with women.
It is an extraordinary number in a race that has been otherwise tight.
J.L. Partners polled 1000 likely voters. The results showed a stark gender gap
And the differences are clear in the language the two sexes use in describing the candidates.
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When women are asked for a one-word summary of Trump, the most common words are: Corrupt, strong, and crazy. Idiot, arrogant, and dangerous come next.
For men they are: Strong, corrupt, and competent.
When men describe Harris, the most frequent words are: Incompetent, liar, competent.
For women they are: Strong, fake, and competent.
The divide was on full display Thursday, when Harris attacked Trump for saying that he would protect women whether they ‘like it or not.’
‘He simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women to know what’s in their own best interests and make decisions accordingly,’ she said on stage in Phoenix, Arizona. ‘But we trust women.’
Trump has leaned into the divide, focusing his attention on podcasts with overwhelmingly male audiences.
Harris supporter Mark Cuban stoked Republican anger during an appearance on The View.
When female voters were asked for their one-word summary of Trump, the top terms were: Corrupt, strong, crazy. The results are displayed in the word cloud above
Kamala Harris has the support of a majority of women. But is it enough to win?
Women have a more positive view of Harris, as seen in this word cloud
‘Donald Trump – you never see him around strong, intelligent women, ever. It’s just that simple… They’re intimidating to him,’ he said.
‘He doesn’t like to be challenged by them.’
J.L. Partners polled 1,000 likely voters across the nation to assess how the electorate broke down by gender.
It found that 59 percent of men said they would vote for Trump, compared with 37 percent who said they could put their cross next to Harris’ name.
For women, 54 percent said they would vote for Harris, 40 percent for Trump.
The gap is the biggest yet, as undecided voters made up their minds.
‘These numbers show a huge chasm of political behavior between men and women,’ said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, comparing it with 2016, when college educated voters went for Hillary Clinton, and non-college educated voters went for Donald Trump.
Trump has leant into his appeal to young men, appearing on bro-friendly podcasts
The Harris campaign is banking on high female turnout to power her to the White House
‘The gender gap was there somewhat in 2020, with men favoring Trump by five points while women backed Biden by 12 points. But Trump now leads by 22 points with men, and Harris by 14 points with women.
‘I hear it when I interview voters too. I can’t count the number of times a man I’ve interviewed has said his wife is voting differently, or vice versa.’
The overall results of the poll show Trump leading Harris by three points, suggesting he could be on course to win the national popular vote.
Johnson said it could be tempting to see women as Harris’s secret weapon, energized by the repeal of Roe v Wade and the abortion debate.
But looking at these numbers, we can’t also ignore the fact that men have swung to Trump since 2020, actually by a greater amount than the swing to Harris amongst women,’ he said.
‘That to me says Trump could win this election regardless of losing women by double digits.
‘Trump can reach the White House on these numbers – if he can turn out them out. If Trump’s male army turns up to the polls, he wins the election regardless of how women vote.’
The poll was coupled with a separate survey that probed attitudes, asking people whether and why their attitude to either candidate had changed.
Woman after woman detailed Trump’s behavior and use of language. Others flagged what they said were vague plans for Social Security and lowering costs.
‘He keeps calling everyone names,’ was one response from a 36-year-old caregiver in the swing state of Michigan, who did not vote in 2020 but plans to vote for Harris this year.