Alert – Presidential polls live updates: Betting market gives Donald Trump his best chance yet of beating Kamala Harris

Former President Barack Obama came close to making a joke about former President Donald Trump wearing an adult diaper.

The Democratic ex-president was talking about affordability.

‘I remember buying diapers,’ Obama said. ‘Do you think Donald Trump ever changed a diaper?’

An audience member yelled, ‘His own!’

‘I almost said that, but I decided I should not say it,’ Obama commented.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 54.4 percent chance of winning November’s election.

The figures on Thursday are his highests odds yet against Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the betting platform.

Some political analysts claim that odds and betting platforms are a better predictor of outcomes than polling in the modern political sphere.

The bettors also say that Trump is poised to take Pennsylvania, which is arguably the most important state to the 2024 election, by odds of 14 percentage points over Harris.

The latest is a massive shift from earlier in September where the two were seen as shifting back and forth in the odds of winning the Keystone State.

But ever since earlier in October, Trump has continued to widen his lead over Harris in Polymarket’s odds.

Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter:

Vice President Kamala Harris is holding a campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona as early voting kicked off in the state yesterday.

She entered under a sign that read ‘Arizona Votes Early.’

She told the packed room that with their help she will win in November even as she trails Trump in the crucial battleground state according to the latest polls.

She called Trump called Trump rejecting another debate a disservice to voters and a ‘pretty weak move.’

‘Even if he will not debate, the contrast in this election is already clear,’ Harris said.

She said it’s about two very different visions for the country including his ‘focused on the past’ and hers ‘focused on the future.’

She also blasted Trump for trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act while in office and praised the ‘late great John McCain’ who while serving as an Arizona senator voted against repealing the legislation.

She recalled is vote late at night being something ‘like out of a movie.’

‘The wooden doors broke open and John McCain came walking into the well of the United States Senate and said “no you don’t,”‘ the vice president said, imitating McCain’s thumbs down motion as he cast his vote.

Former President Barack Obama tried to knock down notions that former President Donald Trump was better for the economy during his event at the University of Pittsburgh Thursday night.

Yeah, it was pretty good, because it was my economy. It wasn’t something he did.

I spent eight years cleaning up the mess that the Republicans had left me.

Former President Barack Obama mocked former President Donald Trump for hawking products amid his presidential run.

Speaking at the University of Pittsburgh, Obama called out Trump for his ‘tweeting in all caps’ and his ‘rantings and ravings about crazy conspiracy theories.’

‘You’ve got the two hours speeches, word salad, it’s like Fidel Castro, like on and on; constant attempts to sell you stuff,’ the Democrat went on.

‘Who does that?’ he mused. ‘He sells you gold sneakers and a 100,000 watch and most recently a Trump Bible.’

‘He wants you to buy the word of God, Donald Trump edition, his name next to Matthew and Luke,’ Obama said. ‘If you saw it on Saturday Night Live, you’d say no that’s going too far…It’s crazy.’

Vice President Kamala Harris was put in the hot seat by a group of undecided Hispanic voters in Nevada on Thursday where she was pressed over a series of key issues from immigration to health care.

But as the vice president looks to lock in support from this key voting bloc with just 26 days to be before Election Day, she played it safe, sidestepping on some hot button issues and resorting back to talking points she often uses on the campaign trail.

The hour-long town hall was tapped at the University of Nevada Las Vegas to air nationally on Univision on Thursday night.

Here are the takeaways:

Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and John McLaughlin say their data show Donald Trump is ahead in the seven battleground states that will decide the election: Arizona (up three points), Georgia (up five), Michigan (up one), Nevada (up three), North Carolina (up one), Pennsylvania (up one), and Wisconsin (up one).

This data projected out would put President Trump at 312 Electoral votes. As importantly, President Trump is at or on the precipice of 50 percent in virtually all of these states.

The polls surveyed 800 likely voters in each state from Oct 6 to 9, and carrying a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The numbers are better for Trump than many independent polls suggest. And the Harris campaign is likely to point out that the main job of Trump’s pollsters is to deliver good news to their candidate.

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by just one point among registered voters according to a new Pew poll.

It shows Harris with 48 percent while Trump has 47 percent, putting them in a head heat. Antoher five percent of voters support third-party candidates.

82 percent of registered voters in the poll said they are certain they will vote for either Harris or Trump with 42 percent saying they are certain on Harris and 40 percent saying they are on Trump.

A new poll of Texas voters gives incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz a five-point lead over his Democratic rival Colin Allred.

If the election were tomorrow, Cruz would win reelection with 51 percent of the vote to Allred’s 46 percent, according to a Marist Poll of 1,186 likely voters published Thursday.

It shows Cruz performing better than in some other recent polls, which have led to Republican jitters they could lose a deep red state.

Elsewhere Republicans are in a strong position to flip the Senate , with several opportunities to pick up seats.

But Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a Republican seat that could be vulnerable.

The ratings for a series of House races have been shifted favorably for Democrats by Inside Elections.

The new ratings include Nebraska’s second congressional district which is currently represented by Republican Congressman Don Bacon being changed from a toss-up to tilt Democrat.

The nonpartisan analysis also shifted North Carolina’s first congressional district held by Democratic Congressman Don Davis from toss-up to tilt Democrat.

Meanwhile, the New York first congressional district seat on Long Island held by Republican Congressman Nick LaLota went from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.

Five more races including in Kansas’ third congressional district, New York’s third congressional district, Nevada’s first congressional district, Ohio’s first congressional district and Oregon’s sixth congressional district have all been sifted from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.

Tiffany Trump is expecting her first child, her father Donald Trump revealed in a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on Thursday.

The former president was recognizing several guests in the crowd, including businessman Massad Boulos, who is Tiffany’s father-in-law, when he announced the good news.

‘He happens to be the father of Tiffany’s husband, Michael, who’s a very exceptional young guy,’ Trump said. ‘And she’s an exceptional young woman. And she’s going to have a baby. So that’s nice.’

The baby will be the former president’s 11th grandchild. Son Don Jr. has five children, Ivanka Trump has three, and Eric Trump has two.

Cheryl Hines, the wife of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., paid tribute to her mother-in-law Ethel Kennedy.

Ethel Kennedy, 96, died Thursday after suffering from a stroke last week.

Hines noted she and her husband ‘spent many warm nights in Hyannis Port having dinner with her and hearing stories.’

‘She always made me laugh. She was never too serious except when she needed to be. She dressed to nines with bare feet. She will be missed. My love is with the family,’ Hines wrote on her X account.

She tagged RFK Jr. in the post, which included a photo of a young Ethel with husband Robert F. Kennedy before his assassination.

The tribute comes as RFK Jr. is under scrutiny for an alleged cheating scandal with 31-year-old reporter Olivia Nuzzi.

Former Presiden Donald Trump slammed ‘beta male’ Howard Stern for lobbing ‘SOFTBALL questions’ at Vice President Kamala Harris during their sit-down in New York Tuesday.

Trump took to Truth Social Wednesday to complain about the interview, part of a media blitz Harris participated in this week after being camera-shy for the first few months of her campaign.

During Stern and Harris’ back-and-forth, Stern recalled his own falling out with the Republican nominee, which Trump referenced in his Truth Social post.

’Former Louisiana Governor Mitch Landrieu struggled to explain how Vice President Kamala Harris was different than President Joe Biden on Thursday during an interview with CNN.

Landrieu began by pointing to Harris’ age, race, and gender as evidence of the differences between the two leaders.

‘She’s obviously a woman. She is a woman of color and she is of a new generation,’ Landrieu began, noting that the differences between Trump and Harris were ‘vast.’

Landrieu is a co-chair of the Harris for president campaign and was previously in a similar role for Biden’s reelection campaign before he dropped out and endorsed Harris.

‘She is not Joe Biden as much as they want to try to make her Joe Biden,’ he continued.

He also tied Harris to three major pieces of legislation passed by Biden that spent trillions of dollars.

‘But she was and is part of the Biden administration and part of all the historic gains that were made from the American Rescue Plan to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, to the CHIPS act, bringing back manufacturing.’

Landrieu concluded that Harris would continue campaigning separately from Biden as she made her case for her presidency.

‘You can expect her to be own person,’ he said. ‘She has demonstrated that throughout her life and she will do that when she’s the president of the United States.’

The Atlantic has endorsed a presidential candidate for the fifth time in its 167-year history – giving the nod to Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The magazine has endorsed the opponent of former President Donald Trump three times now – after only having endorsed Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

This year, Trump is even more vicious and erratic than in the past, and the ideas of his closest advisers are more extreme. Trump has made clear that he would use a second term to consolidate unprecedented power in his own hands, punishing adversaries and pursuing a far-right agenda that most Americans don’t want. “We believe that this election is a turning-point in our history,” the magazine prophesied correctly when it endorsed Abraham Lincoln in 1860. This year’s election is another.

As for Harris, The Atlantic’s editors note that for some of them her policies are too centrist, while others believe she’s too liberal.

The main reason for those ambivalent Americans to vote for Harris has little to do with policy or partisanship. It’s this: Electing her and defeating him is the only way to release us from the political nightmare in which we’re trapped and bring us to the next phase of the American experiment.

By Jon Michael Raasch, U.S. Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

President Joe Biden’s administration must reveal if there are more suspected terrorists living within the U.S. after an Afghan migrant’s Election Day plot was foiled, a top Republican is demanding.

Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, who was employed by the CIA as a security guard, was arrested on Tuesday along with an unnamed minor.

Tawhedi was brought to the U.S. days after the Biden-Harris administration’s deadly military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 through a rushed Special Immigration Visa (SIV) process.

He is accused of ‘conspiring’ and ‘attempting to provide material support to ISIS.’

The would-be killer also allegedly obtained guns and ammunition to ‘conduct a violent attack on U.S. soil in the name of ISIS’ on a large gathering of Americans on November 5.

Even more shockingly, sources familiar with the investigation say Tawhedi worked as a security guard for the CIA while in Afghanistan.

It is unclear whether he was radicalized by ISIS in Afghanistan or after he fled to the U.S. with his family.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Sen. J.D. Vance distinguished himself as more likable than the Republican ticket’s leader Donald Trump.

After his debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz last week, 56 percent of Americans say they consider the Republican VP nominee to be more professional than Trump, according to Prolific polling.

This includes a notable 59 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans.

Fifty-four percent of women voters, as well as those aged 18-24 think Vance’s professionalism is higher than the former president’.

It’s unclear whether the perception of Vance will affect turnout for the Republican ticket next month.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

President Joe Biden spoke with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday in the wake of the first wave of destruction from Hurricane Milton.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell joined the call.

It comes after a public back-and-forth between the Florida leader and White House over DeSantis refusing to take ‘politically charged’ calls from Vice President Kamala Harris.

DeSantis told the President that officials are still assessing damage across Florida.

Hurricane Milton made landfall in the Sunshine State amid the fallout and ongoing response to deadly Hurricane Helene, which hit just last week.

Joe Kennedy announced on X that his grandmother and Kennedy family matriarch passed away days after having a stroke.

It is with our hearts full of love that we announce the passing of our amazing grandmother, Ethel Kennedy. She died this morning from complications related to a stroke suffered last week.

Along with a lifetime’s work in social justice and human rights, our mother leaves behind nine children, 34 grandchildren, and 24 great-grandchildren, along with numerous nieces and nephews, all of whom love her dearly.

She was a devout Catholic and a daily communicant, and we are comforted in knowing she is reunited with the love of her life, our father, Robert F. Kennedy; her children David and Michael; her daughter-in-law Mary; her grandchildren Maeve and Saoirse; and her great-grandchildren Gideon and Josie.

An Afghan migrant who planned to carry out an ISIS-inspired Election Day terrorist attack used to work for the CIA, a bombshell report reveals.

Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, an Afghan national whose arrest was announced earlier this week by the Justice Department, used to work as a security guard for the CIA in Afghanistan, NBC News first reported.

Tawhedi was arrested alongside an unnamed minor, the Justice Department wrote in a press release Tuesday, claiming he ‘conspired and attempted to provide material support to ISIS and obtained firearms and ammunition to conduct a violent attack on U.S. soil in the name of ISIS.’

The Afghan and his accomplice’s plot to purchase automatic assault riffles, hundreds of rounds of ammunition and several magazines was stopped after authorities broke up the deal.

As Kamala Harris fumed that Ron DeSantis was playing politics with preparations for Hurricane Milton it might have been expected that President Joe Biden would take her side.

But when Biden was asked about suggestions the Florida governor had ignored his Vice President’s calls he gave her no such backing, instead heaping praise on the Republican.

Biden told reporters: ‘All I can do is tell you I have talked to Governor DeSantis. He has been very gracious, he’s thanked for me all we’ve done, he knows what we’re doing and I think that’s important.’

His comments appeared to severely undercut Harris’ position.

The contradictory messages out of the White House have led to questions about whether Biden is simply doing his job as president, or if he is deliberately stealing the spotlight from the woman who replaced him as the Democratic nominee.

Whatever the reason it is not helping Harris’ cause.

Republicans have latched onto Biden’s words, using them in adverts and social media posts against Harris.

In all, the president has stepped on his vice president four times recently – twice in regard to the DeSantis row, once speaking over her at a hurricane briefing, and by making a surprise appearance at the White House as she was about to deliver a big campaign speech.

Polling analyst Nate Silver revealed that the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will remain tied until election day.

‘I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will,” Silver wrote in his column.

He said another presidential debate or a hurricane, or some major news event could disrupt the race, but that it was more likely that the race would remain a toss-up.

/With extremely few undecided voters (Harris and Trump combine for 95.5 percent of the vote in our national average and third parties typically get another 1 or 2 percent) there just aren’t enough votes in play to really move the needle,’ Silver wrote. ‘And polls simply aren’t accurate enough to provide for much more confidence than that.’

Trump went on a Truth Social rant after Fox News offered to host a second debate between the two candidates in October.

He claimed he ‘won’ the first debate with ‘lyin Kamala’ as well as his first debate with Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race.

I WON THE LAST TWO DEBATES, ONE WITH CROOKED JOE, THE OTHER WITH LYIN’ KAMALA. I ACCEPTED THE FOX-NEWS INVITATION TO DEBATE KAMALA ON SEPTEMBER 4TH, BUT SHE TURNED IT DOWN. JD VANCE EASILY WON HIS DEBATE WITH TAMPON TIM WALZ, WHO CALLED HIMSELF A KNUCKLEHEAD! I AM ALSO LEADING IN THE POLLS, WITH THE LEAD GETTING BIGGER BY THE DAY – AND LEADING IN ALL SWING STATES.

THE FIRST THING A PRIZEFIGHTER DOES WHEN HE LOSES A FIGHT IS SAY THAT HE “DEMANDS A REMATCH.” IT IS VERY LATE IN THE PROCESS, VOTING HAS ALREADY BEGUN – THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH! BESIDES, KAMALA STATED CLEARLY, YESTERDAY, THAT SHE WOULD NOT DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT THAN JOE BIDEN, SO THERE IS NOTHING TO DEBATE.

Historian Allan Lichtman shared how the impact of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton could impact the results of the 2024 election.

Lichtman is a professor at American University whose election model has correctly forecast nearly every presidential election winner since 1984.

The 77-year-old announced early last month that be believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win the November election against former President Donald Trump.

But a lot has happened since his announcement then with devastation caused by Hurricane Helene and Milton expected to be disastrous as it makes landfall in Florida late Wednesday.

‘The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe, and of course it is critically important that the response be as effective as possible,’ Lichtman told Newsweek.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump accused CBS News of committing the ‘biggest scandal’ in the history of broadcast news.

The former president is still airing his grievances after it was revealed that 60 Minutes posted an edited version of its interview with Kamala Harris in an apparent effort to more positively portray the vice president.

Posted on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump wrote:

The fraud committed by 60 Minutes and CBS, together with the Democrat Party, is the single Biggest Scandal in Broadcast History!

His campaign demanded this week that CBS apologize to the American people and release a full, unedited transcript of the interview.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Kamala Harris has taken the lead among suburban voters and middle-income families – demographics that were key to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory.

The vice president has 47 percent support among suburban voters compared to Trump’s 41 percent, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

And among middle-income households, Harris now leads the former president by two points – 45 percent to 43 percent.

While making up ground among these voting blocs is important in November, the real figures that will determine the outcome is among voters in th seven battleground swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A Global Strategy Group poll released this week shows Trump leading in two swing states, Harris leading in two and the nominees tied in the remaining three.

Trump holds Michigan and right-leaning North Carolina by a two and one-point margin, respectively.

Meanwhile, Harris has a one-point lead in Pennsylvania and a two-point lead in Wisconsin.

The two are tied at 46 percent in Arizona, Georgia and blue-leaning Nevada.

Comedian Andrew Schulz did not hold back when asking Donald Trump about abortion, suggesting that the president’s son, Barron, could be impacted by his father’s policies.

The 40-year-old comedian sat down with the ex-president for an interview on his podcast released Wednesday.

The wide-ranging conversation included delving into Trump's Scottish heritage, the multiple assassination attempts the former president has survived, and Barron Trump’s romantic escapades at New York University — where he began this fall.