Historian Allan Lichtman said that a so-called October surprise would not make him back off his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He announced in early September that Harris has met the critical objectives for victory and predicted she would beat Trump and now he denies the idea that any sort of surprise between now and November 5 would change that.
‘One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise,’ he said.
An October surprise historically refers to a significant news event that takes place in the closing weeks of a presidential campaign.
Historian Allan Lichtman said that a so-called October surprise would not make him back off his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November
Lichtman relies on an unorthodox system – ignoring the polls and pundits – based on what he calls ’13 keys’ to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
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Those keys are, in his opinion, able to stand the test of any sort of October surprise that could befall either candidate.
‘The keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign,’ Lichtman told CNN.
Past examples of October surprises have included, perhaps most infamously, Hillary Clinton’s emails leading to the federal investigation being reopened, or Donald Trump’s Access Hollywood tape.
In the 2020 election, some have posited that Trump contracting COVID-19 and the Hunter Biden laptop story and it’s resulting cover-up were going to shake up the race.
The origins of the term go back to 1980, when the Iranian Hostage Crisis was believed to have led Jimmy Carter to lose to Ronald Reagan.
In August, legal scholar John Yoo warned Trump could be blindsided by an ‘October surprise’ in his Manhattan conviction that would obliterate his chances at retaking the White House.
Trump has been desperately seeking to hold off his sentencing hearing until after the election, following his conviction by a Manhattan jury of 34 counts of falsifying business records.
He announced in early September that Harris has met the critical objectives for victory and predicted she would beat Trump and now he denies the idea that any sort of surprise between now and November 5 would change that
Lichtman says that there’s no such ‘October surprise’ that would make him change his prediction
But the controversial Judge Juan Merchan has consistently denied his appeals.
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While speaking to Fox News host Bill Hemmer, Yoo said Merchan wields the power to ‘order Donald Trump…to jail immediately.’
In May, it was revealed U.S. officials are preparing for North Korea to undertake increasingly ‘provocative’ actions in the run-up to the November elections, as Pyongyang cements longstanding ties with Moscow.
‘We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,’ a U.S. intelligence official told NBC News.
It comes in anticipation of a likely meeting between North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was reelected this year with 87 per cent of the vote after more than two decades in power.
Some of the escalatory actions, whatever they may be, are expected to come close to the U.S. election, according to intelligence officials.
Biden Administration officials are raising concerns about the alliance, which comes amid an embrace between U.S. rivals Russia and China during the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The warning has echoes of 2016, when U.S. officials accused Russia of interference in the election. Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted 34 individuals including members of a Russian troll farm linked to the Kremlin after his two-year probe.