Tory leadership hopefuls Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat have closed in on frontrunner Kemi Badenoch, a new poll of party members suggests.
The survey shows Mrs Badenoch would lose to ex-Immigration Minister Mr Jenrick if Tory members voted now – but by just one percentage point.
And Mrs Badenoch would only narrowly beat Shadow Home Office Minister Mr Tugendhat in a final run-off vote by the party faithful.
But last night, pollsters JL Partners said both results were ‘a statistical tie’ and declared this was ‘the most open Conservative leadership election’ since rank-and-file party members were given a vote.
The contest to succeed Rishi Sunak will be decided in a final ballot next month of all Tory members, with the result announced on November 2.
But this week, Tory MPs will begin thinning down the current shortlist of six candidates to four who will take part in a political ‘beauty parade’ at the party’s annual Autumn conference.
Mrs Badenoch, the former Business Secretary, will formally launch her campaign on Monday and has been considered the frontrunner so far.
But the JL Partners poll of nearly 500 members showed that if facing Mr Tugendhat, she would beat him with 42 per cent to his 39 per cent, with 19 per cent of members undecided.
In a run-off against Mr Jenrick, Mrs Badenoch would lose with 34 to his 35 per cent, with 31 per cent of members undecided.
The survey also suggested Mr Tugendhat had gained most campaigning momentum during the summer, showing he would clearly beat Mr Jenrick in a last round (44 to 32 per cent) and ex-Home Secretary Priti Patel (48 to 40 per cent). And with a net favourability rating of plus 28, he is now the most favourably viewed of the four.
But Mr Jenrick’s standing with members had also risen from plus 16 in June to plus 24 while Mrs Badenoch’s rating was ‘stable’ on plus 25.
However, the poll did not include rival candidates former Home Secretary James Cleverly and Mel Stride, ex-Work and Pensions Secretary.
Last night, James Johnson of JL Partners said: ‘There is no favourite in this race – in fact, it is the most open Conservative leadership election that members have ever had the chance to vote in.
‘The big winner in the poll is Tom Tugendhat whose campaign with members seems to have paid off over the summer.’
Mr Johnson added that Mrs Badenoch ‘remains competitive’ in the race and that despite a boost in Mr Jenrick’s ratings, he still ‘has clear work to do’.
At a rally on Sunday, Mr Jenrick will seek to take the fight to Labour amid expectations taxes will rise in the new Government’s first Budget this Autumn.
Mr Jenrick will say: ‘Sir Keir’s first Budget is shaping up to be a declaration of war on the middle class and we must be ready to fight it.
‘So far, the guiding principle of Labour’s economic policy has been wealth destruction.
‘Labour have jeopardised thousands of jobs in the North Sea through their arbitrary net zero targets and their planned tax raids on top earners have already backfired.
‘And for what? The UK’s competitive advantage is being squandered to fund Sir Keir’s pointless new quangos and satisfy his union paymasters.’
But Mr Jenrick will say that ‘the very top earners are already being squeezed dry’ and that Sir Keir will ‘have no choice but to target working families – those trying their best to provide for their families, but struggling – to fund his indulgent spending plans.
‘As leader, I will make sure we are always on the side of people working hard to get on in life.’
At her campaign launch on Monday, Mrs Badenoch, who is expected to be endorsed by leading Tory frontbencher Laura Trott, will tell party colleagues: ‘It is not enough to call for ‘unity’.
‘We need to ask ourselves, what are we uniting around?’
Sources contrasted her ‘Renewal 2030’ campaign from her rivals, pointing out that it does not bear her name as she wanted the Conservative Party to come together and think hard about what it was for.
They added that instead of debating individual policy positions, she would focus on the bigger question of what it meant to be a Conservative today.
• JL Partners consulted a ‘nationally representative’ sample of 471 Tory members between August 16 and 27.