Almost three weeks ago, in the aftermath of Joe Biden being forced out as the Democratic presidential candidate and in the first flush of growing enthusiasm for his replacement, Kamala Harris, I argued that this was still Donald Trump’s election to lose. But, unless he got a grip on his campaign, lose it he would.
Since then, Harris’s star has stayed in the ascendant and Trump’s campaign has gone from bad to worse. As things stand, Trump looks more like a loser than a winner.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and November 5 – and probably will in this febrile and surprising US election campaign. But it will get worse for Trump before it gets better, if it ever does.
Since Harris was gifted the Biden nomination, unchallenged, by Democratic powerbrokers she has monopolised the news, much to Trump’s fury.
His anger is compounded by the fact her rallies now rival his in terms of numbers and enthusiasm. This is especially infuriating for a man for whom crowd size is a key metric of success; and publicity is as vital to his wellbeing as oxygen is to the rest of us.
As things stand, Trump looks more like a loser than a winner. Of course, a lot can happen between now and November 5th – and probably will in this febrile and surprising US election campaign. But it will get worse for Trump before it gets better, if it ever does.
Harris will continue to dominate the headlines through the Democratic Convention later this month in Chicago, which will be a glitzy, star-studded, prime-time coronation for Queen Kamala, and propel her to Labor Day (the first Monday of September), when the campaign proper begins.
She will hit the ground running. Trump will probably still be floundering and flailing to come up with attack lines that work.
So far, everything he’s tried to regain the initiative has failed. On Monday, he spent two hours talking to Elon Musk on the tech billionaire’s X (formerly Twitter) social media platform.
It didn’t help that the start was delayed for 40 minutes by a technical glitch (must have been the American ‘deep state’ or ‘Iranian hackers’ claimed his more conspiratorial supporters, with zero evidence). But when the conversation eventually started it was so ‘ho-hum’ that it struggled to make much news.
Trump trotted out all his usual grievances, personal insults and well-aired falsehoods, none of which Musk challenged. Trump likes his inquisitors supine. Harris was ‘third rate’ even ‘lunatic’ but the presidents of Russia, China and North Korea were ‘tough’, ‘smart’, ‘at the top of their game’.
It is a curious, some might think bizarre, strategy to run for president of the world’s greatest democracy by praising three of the globe’s most evil autocrats. But then Trump has never met a strongman he didn’t admire (and probably wished to ape).
The week before, in a previous attempt to grab back the spotlight, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida Palace of Bling.
It was staged to underline his willingness to be questioned, compared with Harris, who has yet to give a proper interview or press conference since replacing Biden. She prefers the safety of the teleprompter to unscripted exposure, in which past experience suggests she’d be vulnerable.
But, again, Trump had nothing of substance to say. Instead of mounting a critique of Harris’s threadbare record as vice president and her previous embrace of every fashionable Left-wing cause under the sun, he was typically false, obtuse, petty and vindictive.
This worked in 2016 against Hilary Clinton, whom even the Democrats did not like. It is not working against Harris, whose popularity is growing from a low base, partly because she remains hermetically sealed from scrutiny.
Trump’s failing campaign is already being reflected in the polls. Before the June debate with Biden, which was a car crash for the President, Trump had been slightly ahead in the polls in most of the swing states – but not by much.
Harris will continue to dominate the headlines through the Democratic Convention later this month in Chicago , which will be a glitzy, star-studded, prime-time coronation for Queen Kamala.
After the debate, Trump’s lead widened and he began to look unstoppable. But when Harris replaced Biden the polls returned to where they’d been before. Now they’re moving Harris’s way.
The latest New York Times poll in three crucial swing states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – has Harris ahead by decent margins (50 per cent to 46 per cent) in all three among likely voters. Still within the margin of error because polling samples in each state are quite small (under 700); but it is clear the momentum is with her.
Her favourability rating is rising and Democratic support for their candidate has risen from 60 per cent in May to 87 per cent now. A savvy Trump campaign would spot an opportunity in that.
Moderates are still up for grabs so the Republican election strategy should be to pound her previous policy positions remorselessly – against private health insurance (the basis of the US health system), against fracking (the reason America is energy independent) and in favour of defunding the police, decriminalising illegal entry to the country, a socialist-style Green New Deal and gun confiscation – while pointing out that in Minnesota Governor Tim Walz she has a running mate who will not curb her Left-wing tendencies but encourage them.
You wouldn’t think it too hard for Trump to base a winning campaign on these attack lines. After all, the economy and immigration are the two most important issues for voters and he has a lead over Harris in both. But he’s not interested in matters as mundane as policy.
Instead he’s taken to howling at the wind. Furious that Harris rallies might outnumber his, he’s accusing her people of enhancing the numbers using artificial intelligence, claiming ‘nobody was there’ when pictures of a Harris rally at a Detroit airport hangar show around 10,000 present.
I yield to no one in my low regard for America’s overwhelmingly partisan Democratic media, but for Trump’s claim to be true they’d all have to be in on the AI conspiracy since ever major newspaper and broadcaster covered the Detroit event.
It is patently absurd, even deranged – a word quietly but increasingly being used to describe Trump, even in some Republican circles.
He has no focus on the issues which matter and could determine the election. No consistent case to justify why he should have four more years in the White House.
But he recently told supporters ‘Biden was locked and loaded ready to take me out’. He’s even musing out loud that Biden could turn up in Chicago to grab the nomination back from Harris. Deranged indeed.
Whisper it softly but some say his age (78) is becoming a factor, that he is now the Biden of the 2024 campaign. He slurred some words in his Musk interview. Some even speculate that he could be at risk of a breakdown.
Far-fetched, perhaps. But his core support is losing its enthusiasm. He rambles for longer and more incoherently than ever at his rallies.
Harris-Walz are eminently beatable. Almost any competent mainstream Republican ticket could do it. But somtimes Trump is his own worst enemy. If he is the loser again in November he’ll have nobody to blame but himself.
Some Republican strategists have given up hopes of the White House and think it’s best to concentrate on controlling a Harris-Walz administration with a Republican-controlled Congress. European capitals will take comfort in the prospect that, though Harris is no great shakes at foreign policy, NATO should be safe with her in the Oval Office.
In theory, there is still all to play for. Harris-Walz are eminently beatable. Almost any competent mainstream Republican ticket could do it. There will be at least one Harris-Trump debate (September 10) during the campaign and maybe up to three.
Harris will be at her most vulnerable, with no teleprompter to protect her. Trump could be at his most dangerous. But not if he eschews policy critiques for pathetic, childish personal attacks. That will not go down well with voters.
These are dangerous times and Americans want grown up debates between those who would be their president. It seems such an obvious point for Trump to comprehend, but sometimes he just doesn’t get it. Sometimes he’s his own worst enemy.
If he is the loser again in November he’ll have nobody to blame but himself.