As postal ballots begin landing on doormats around the country, the Scottish Conservatives yesterday issued a plea to voters to help them ‘turn a difficult night for the SNP into a disastrous one’.
The party is largely focused on a dozen seats across Scotland where it is in a straight fight with the SNP.
Latest polling suggests that most of these seats are extremely tight, leading to fears among Conservatives that votes for any of the other pro-Union parties in these battlegrounds could result in a Nationalist MP taking their seat in the House of Commons.
In the second part of a series looking at these key battlegrounds, our Scottish Political Editor MICHAEL BLACKLEY assesses four constituencies in the south of Scotland where issues such as the constitution, taxes, roads and rural affairs have dominated and could prove pivotal.
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY
Many people in Dumfries and Galloway feel like they are living in the ‘forgotten corner’ of Scotland, far from the attention of SNP ministers in Edinburgh.
The problem was summed up when Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon attended an event in Newton Stewart where she was given a presentation about designating Galloway Forest Park as a national park and confessed that she didn’t know the area was so rural.
It firmed up the view among some of those in the audience that this is an area which has been neglected for too long by the Central Belt-focused SNP Government.
One of the key issues causing anger in recent years has been the failure to upgrade a series of crucial roads.
The A75 runs right through the constituency and also links Scotland to the north of England and Northern Ireland via the Cairnryan ferry.
But journeys the length of it from Dumfries to Stranraer are regularly heavily interrupted by delays caused by accidents, overturned lorries or just the sheer volume of traffic.
Calls for upgrades to the A75 to address pinch points and speed up journey times have been considered by the SNP Government for years but never delivered. But the UK Government has now designated it as a key road of UK-wide importance following its Union Connectivity Review and has committed £8million of funding for a feasibility study looking at improvements.
SNP ministers were initially resistant to any intervention from UK ministers to address pinch points because road upgrades are devolved – but in more recent months they have entered more productive discussions.
Similar concerns are also raised about inaction on other problem roads in the surrounding area, including the A77.
Key industries in the area include farming, fishing and forestry – and in each of these sectors there is a concern about policies coming from Holyrood and cuts to key budgets.
In common with other rural areas, recruitment is an issue for hospitals, GP surgeries and other public services, leading to even greater problems with treatment delays and difficulties securing appointments.
The problems are exacerbated by the SNP forcing people earning more than £28,850 to pay the highest taxes in the UK. Some living in the constituency work across the Border in places such as Carlisle, and have to pay more tax than their work colleagues.
Since 2017, the constituency has been represented by Alister Jack, who arrived late to politics but quickly gained a good reputation and was first handed the role of Scottish Secretary when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in 2019.
After a low-key start in the role, Mr Jack grew in confidence and latterly gained widespread credit for standing up to the SNP on a series of major issues.
He used ‘section 35’ powers to stop the SNP’s gender reforms from gaining Royal Assent and stood up for cross-Border trade by ruling that a standalone deposit return scheme could not gain an exemption from UK Internal Market rules unless it eventually became part of a UK-wide scheme.
Mr Jack has announced his decision to stand down at the election but the Tory candidate is one of his trusted special advisers – John Cooper, who previously worked for newspapers including the Scottish Daily Mail. He also latterly edited the Wigtownshire Free Press, where he once worked as a trainee reporter 40 years ago.
The SNP heavily targeted the seat in 2019 and saw its vote share soar by 8.2 per cent, but Mr Jack retained it with a slender majority of 1,805.
While the SNP has not appeared to throw resources at the seat this year, it could still win if the Labour vote rises.
However, the Conservatives have been making clear to voters that Labour won fewer than one in ten of the votes in 2019 and has little realistic chance of victory – meaning votes for the party could let in the SNP.
■ 2019 winner: Alister Jack (Conservative)
■ 2019 majority: 1,805
■ Key battle: John Cooper (Con) v Tracey Little (SNP)
Critical condition of healthcare is proving key campaign issue
BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH & SELKIRK
The threat to local hospitals is proving a key issue on the campaign trail in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.
NHS Borders has said it may soon close the 92 community hospital beds in Kelso, Duns, Hawick and Peebles, causing major concern locally.
John Lamont, pictured, who has represented the area for 17 years – first in the Scottish parliament and then at Westminster since 2017 – had been pounding the streets to gain thousands of signatures for a petition to stop closures before the election was called.
He is also fully aware of constituents having to travel to England for hospital treatment, or growing frustrated at near neighbours having better access to a GP.
The SNP’s failure to upgrade the A75 and A77 roads has also rankled with people and the votes of motorists are key.
Other pro-Union parties secured tiny shares of the vote in 2019 – 8 per cent for the Lib Dems and just 5 per cent for Labour – meaning a straight fight between Mr Lamont and the SNP’s David Wilson, who aims to ‘turf a Tory’.
The former hospitality worker has also focused on his efforts to ‘challenge the career politicians in government and opposition’.
■ 2019 winner: John Lamont (Con)
■ 2019 majority: 5,148
■ Key battle: Lamont v David Wilson (SNP)
Tories warn Labour votes may help Nationalists snatch victory
DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESSDALE AND TWEEDDALE
Tory David Mundell has regularly been on the SNP’s hit list when it comes to target seats, having represented the constituency since 2005.
The former Scottish Secretary has campaigned on issues ranging from potholes and upgrading roads to healthcare services.
In the 2019 general election, Mr Mundell, pictured, won 46 per cent of the vote, with the SNP on 38 per cent and Labour third with 8.5 per cent.
A Norstat poll carried out last week put the Conservatives on 27 per cent and the SNP on 23 per cent – but it also suggested that the Labour vote has increased to 24 per cent.
The figures have caused some alarm among Tory strategists, with activists now stepping up activity and making clear that votes for Labour could lead to the SNP snatching the seat.
■ 2019 winner: David Mundell (Con)
■ 2019 majority:3,781
■ Key battle: Mundell v Kim Marshall (SNP)
Conservatives and SNP fight to see who will be top of the cops
AYR, CARRICK AND CUMNOCK
While vast swathes of southern Scotland are now blue, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock remains a rare yellow outpost where the SNP have clung on.
The Tory party believes that it is one of half a dozen seats it can win from the SNP.
It has become something of a swing seat, having been won by the SNP’s Corri Wilson in 2015 before switching to Tory Bill Grant in 2017 and then back to the SNP’s Allan Dorans, who entered politics in 2019 at the age of 64.
Labour have also been resurgent in the seat, and the split pro-Union vote will give Mr Dorans, an ex-Met detective inspector, confidence he can hold it.
The Tories believe they are the closest rival to the SNP because of the past general election results and also recent local elections.
In the September 2023 Girvan and South Carrick by-election, the Tories beat the SNP by 537 votes. The regional list vote for south of Scotland in the 2021 Scottish parliament had the Tories in second on 33.5 per cent, behind the SNP on 37.6 per cent.
The Tory candidate is Martin Dowey, also a former police officer, who is currently leader of South Ayrshire Council.
■ 2019 winner: Allan Dorans(SNP)
■ 2019 majority: 2,329
■ Key battle: Dorans v Martin Dowey (Con)
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