Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer kicked off a crunch election debate tonight – as an apocalyptic poll underlined the stakes for the Tories.
The PM and Sir Keir are going head-to-head in a clash on ITV that Conservatives hope can turn the tide in the contest.
Mr Sunak said it was a choice between him and Sir Keir for No10, saying his opponent would ‘raise your taxes and raid your pensions’.
‘In five weeks time, either Keir Starmer or I will be prime minister,’ he said. ‘Beyond raising your taxes and raiding your pensions, no one know what he will do … I have a clear plan for a more secure future for you and your family.’
Sir Keir said he wanted to ‘turn the page’ and had a ‘practical plan’ for the country.
The stakes for the premier have been underlined by huge Survation research showing Labour is on track for the biggest majority in modern political history at 324 seats – compared to the 179 margin Tony Blair achieved.
The survey – conducted using the so-called MRP technique – projected the Conservatives would be reduced to just 71 MPs.
Mr Sunak would barely manage to cling on to his own Richmond & Northallerton constituency. It also suggested Reform could win three, as Nigel Farage launches his bombshell bid to win a constituency.
The leaders are set to go toe-to-toe on key issues such as the economy, defence, NHS and migration in the debate chaired by host Julie Etchingham in Salford.
Tories have warned that Mr Sunak must land blows on his rival to salvage any hope.
One defending MP told they wanted Mr Sunak to emulate Nick Clegg, who handed the Lib Dem campaign a huge boost with his debate performance in 2010.
But the former Cabinet minister said they were not optimistic he would succeed: ‘It’s difficult and I just don’t know… we can but hope.’
Other senior Conservatives suggested Mr Sunak will need to ‘hit Starmer hard’ on issues such as the Rwanda deportations plan.
‘Starmer is hardly very light on his feet. I think the stand for nothing charge might resonate,’ one said. But they admitted that the gap in the polls meant the premier needed a ‘miracle’.
Mr Sunak stayed away from the campaign trail today as he focused on preparing, arriving in Manchester in casual clothes accompanied by key aides. Earlier he went to scope out the futuristic set for the clash.
The Survation findings were based on more than 30,000 interviews conducted since the start of the election campaign. The MRP method maps demographic characteristics to voters to give seat-by-seat estimates.
However, many Tories insist they are not detecting the same level of gloom on the doorstep.
There was slightly better news for Mr Sunak as a separate Savanta poll suggested the Labour lead had been trimmed to 14 points.
There is rising anger within Conservative ranks at the PM’s decision to call the election earlier than most had expected.
With little sign of Mr Sunak making inroads into Labour’s huge poll lead, one Tory candidate bemoaned the PM’s ‘obviously really stupid’ gamble on a summer vote.
Another Conservative candidate claimed MPs and party members had been ‘thrown to the wolves’.
Mr Sunak is reeling from Nigel Farage’s decision to return to the political frontline to lead Reform UK’s campaign and seek a House of Commons seat in Clacton-on-Sea.
Some Tories have been venting frustration that Mr Sunak did not act earlier to head off the threat from Mr Farage.
One former minister told the Brexit champion should ‘absolutely’ have been given a peerage before. ‘It was stupid and churlish not to,’ they said.
The PM faced a double blow yesterday when a new YouGov poll, released shortly after Mr Farage’s dramatic announcement, showed the Tories on course for wipeout.
Sir Keir, who has faced his own difficulties with high-profile rows over Labour’s selection of candidates, campaigned in the North West this morning.
But the Labour leader used this afternoon for final preparations for tonight’s debate.
Asked how he was feeling ahead of the encounter, Sir Keir said: ‘Very good, looking forward to the opportunity to speak directly to voters through the debate to put our case, because at the end of the day it is that clear choice, and I think voters will see that tonight.
Sir Keir said his prep had been carried out by ‘the same team as for PMQs’.
Mr Sunak has been gearing up for the debate with deputy PM Oliver Dowden playing the part of the Labour leader in rehearsals.
The key issues the leaders will clash on tonight
The Economy
The PM is likely to repeat his message that ‘the plan is working’ as he will remind voters of his efforts to bring down inflation amid the cost-of-living crisis.
Mr Sunak has warned that Labour would take Britain back to ‘square one’ if they win power and warn voters not to put the UK’s economic recovery at risk.
He has claimed Sir Keir would be forced to increase taxes if he reaches No10, in order to fill a £38.5 billion ‘blackhole’ in Labour’s spending plans.
Mr Sunak has used the general election campaign to unveil a new ‘triple lock plus’ for the state pension to ensure payments for retirees are never taxed.
He has accused Labour of a ‘retirement tax’ by failing to match his pledge that the tax-free personal allowance will rise at the same pace as state pension increases.
But Sir Keir is likely to hit back that pensioners – and other Brits – are only facing larger tax bills due to Mr Sunak’s decision to freeze income tax thresholds.
The Labour leader will be keen to point out the UK’s tax burden is at its highest for more than 70 years.
He is also expected to make frequent references to the economic turmoil that accompanied Liz Truss’s spell as PM, while attacking sluggish economic growth under the Tories.
Overall, Sir Keir will hope to portray Labour as a fiscally responsible party compared to the ‘chaos’ of 14 years of Conservative rule.
The NHS
Mr Sunak will face a tricky ride on the state of the health service after admitting earlier this year that he had failed on a pledge to cut NHS waiting lists in England.
But the PM is likely to argue that waiting lists were moving in the right direction before the impact of strike action by NHS staff.
Mr Sunak recently unveiled plans to boost community care with 100 new GP surgeries and 50 community diagnostic centres to be built were he to remain PM.
He has vowed to fund his proposals by slashing the number of NHS managers.
The PM is likely to repeat that the NHS is ‘personal to me’ as his father was a GP and his mother owned a pharmacy.
Sir Keir will also make personal reference to the NHS, where his wife works in occupational health.
Labour have promised to clear waits of more than 18 weeks within five years of taking office as part of their efforts to clear hospital backlogs.
They are pledging 40,000 extra appointments, scans, and operations a week during evenings and weekends, and to use spare capacity in private hospitals.
Labour claim the extra appointments and new scanners will cost £1.3billion and will be paid for by clamping down on tax dodgers and closing non-dom tax loopholes.
Defence
The PM will put pressure on the Labour leader to match his pledge to boost defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030.
Mr Sunak is also likely to make frequent references to Sir Keir’s support for ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was sceptical of NATO and opposed nuclear weapons.
The PM used a recent speech to warn voters ‘your family and our country are all at risk if Labour win’.
Labour have committed to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on the military ‘as soon as we can’ but not put a date on when they hope to achieve that target.
Sir Keir has attempted to beef up his credentials on national security by recently making a ‘triple lock’ pledge on Britain’s nuclear deterrent.
This saw him commit to continuing to build four new nuclear submarines, maintaining Britain’s at-sea deterrent, and delivering all future upgrades for submarine patrols.
The Tories branded the promise ‘meaningless’, given a dozen of Labour’s current front bench team voted against renewing Trident in 2016 under Mr Corbyn.
This included shadow foreign secretary David Lammy and deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner.
Migration
The PM will push his Rwanda plan as the best way to solve the Channel migrant crisis by providing a deterrent to those thinking of making the perilous journey on a small boat.
He will also promote his newly-unveiled pledge to introduce a cap on worker and family visas in a bid to ensure legal migration figures fall year on year.
The proposed plan would give Parliament a direct role in setting levels of migration, with MPs having a vote on the number.
Mr Sunak is also likely to attack Sir Keir’s support for remaining in the EU, which would have seen Britain keep free movement rules.
He is also expected to take aim at Labour’s interest in an asylum returns deal with the EU, which the Tories have warned would see Britain obligated to take in 100,000 migrants from the bloc each year.
Sir Keir has branded the Rwanda plan a ‘gimmick’ and pointed to the cost to taxpayers of a scheme that has yet to see a single migrant deported to the African country.
Labour’s plan is to establish a new Border Security Command to crackdown on people-smuggling gangs who charge extortionate fees to take migrants across the Channel.
Sir Keir has promised to slash ‘sky-high’ net migration if he becomes PM and claimed the Tories have ‘lost control of our borders’.
Tory ‘chaos’ vs ‘Sir Flip-Flop’
Tonight’s debate is likely to see plenty of personal attacks from both the PM and Sir Keir.
Mr Sunak will seek to portray the Labour leader as a ‘left lawyer’ who would undermine Britain’s economic and national security.
He could also use the Tory moniker of ‘Sir Flip-Flop’ for the Labour leader, after Sir Keir ditched many of the pledges he ran for his party’s leadership on.
The PM will be expected to make frequent references to Sir Keir’s past membership of Mr Corbyn’s shadow cabinet.
But the Labour leader will also try to link Mr Sunak to his immediate predecessor, by focusing on the ‘chaos’ of Ms Truss’s spell in No10.
Overall, Sir Keir is likely to ask voters whether they feel better off after 14 years of Conservative rule.