Former President Donald Trump is not only leading the Republican field in Iowa, he is backed by supporters who express more certitude than his leading opponents.
One key metric inside the new Des Moines Register poll reveals just how rock solid Trump’s support has become. Overall, 41 per cent of those polled say their mind is made up, with a 54 per cent majority saying they still could be persuaded. That indicates that most Iowans are still shopping around for a favorite candidate 10 weeks before the Iowa Caucuses.
But among Trump’s supporters, 63 per cent say their mind is ‘made up’ – with only 37 per cent saying they could be persuaded to back another candidate.
That is substantially stronger than the hold Trump’s two strongest rivals have on their own supporters, in a survey that has them trailing Trump by 27 points.
It comes after two televised presidential debates where alternative candidates sparred (Trump skipped both events), and following extensive coverage of Trump’s four criminal cases and 91 criminal indictments.
‘He has a dominating lead in the poll. And he’s got a majority of his supporters saying that they will not change their mind. They are locked in,’ pollster J. Ann Selzer told .com.
That leaves Trump’s opponents searching for ways to try to expand the electorate or somehow persuade an estimated 40,000 registered Republicans who have not caucused before to come out and back them.
63 per cent of Donald Trump supporters in a new Iowa poll say their mind is ‘made up’
‘If you want to win this caucus, it looks highly unlikely you’re going to persuade the Trump supporters who say they’re locked in that now [that] they want to change their mind,’ she said on the day the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll was released.
For supporters of Ron DeSantis, whose number have been dropping in the poll, just 30 per cent say their mind is made up, with 70 per cent saying they could still be persuaded.
Among Nikki Haley supporters, just a quarter, or 26 per cent, say their mind is made up, with 74 per cent saying they could still be persuaded.
Anti-Trump forces have long spoken about the need for the GOP field to consolidate to allow a single figure who could defeat Trump to emerge, and on Saturday former Vice President Mike Pence announced he was suspending his campaign.
But there is no guarantee other candidate’s supporters wouldn’t go for Trump.
Even for DeSantis – who Trump regularly mocks as ‘Ron DeSanctimonious’ and his campaign calls ‘Rhonda Santis – has not built his support only from anti-Trump Republicans.
If DeSantis were to drop out in Iowa, 41 per cent of his supporters say Trump is their second choice, indicating his departure could cause Trump’s support to spike.
A departure for Haley, the only candidate who saw a pronounced jump in the poll compared to August, would send her backers to various camps. Her backers list their second choices as DeSantis (34 per cent), Tim Scott (19 per cent), and Doug Burgum (14 per cent). Just 12 per cent of Haley’s backers named Trump as their second choice.
Trump holds a commanding lead in the latest Des Moines Register poll out of Iowa, while Ron DeSantis has slipped and Nikki Haley is gaining – but both rivals are far short of the former president.
Trump has amassed a 27-point lead over his closest rivals, and he is backed by 43 per cent of likely Republican caucus-goers.
That is virtually the same as the 42 per cent support he got in the same poll in August. During the intervening weeks, several of his opponents including DeSantis sharpened their attacks on Trump, even as he juggled multiple criminal indictments, but. Trump skipped the first two presidential debates.
DeSantis is at 16 per cent, as is former South Carolina Gov. Haley – although she arrived there after a 10-point gain from August. DeSantis drifted down from 19 per cent that month. Haley is the only candidate in the survey to achieve a substantial jump.
Trump’s Iowa lead has crept up to 43 per cetn in the latest Des Moines Register poll
Pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll, pointed to the two contenders, saying they were ‘on ground that you could only describe as shaky compared to the solid ground that Donald Trump stands on.’
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz edged out Trump in the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, but Trump has made a point of cultivating the state’s evangelical voters while fiercely defending ethanol subsidies. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who was banking on a strong showing in Iowa and who has been hammered by Trump, announced Saturday he is suspending his campaign. He was named as the top choice of just 2 per cent of Republicans in the poll.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is at 7 per cent in the poll. That showing – two points below his last result – prompted him to tell radio host Hugh Hewitt his campaign was ‘Iowa or bust.’
‘We have made the decision that it’s Iowa or bust for us and I’m looking forward to being there,’ he said.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose campaign is focused on New Hampshire, is down at 4 per cent. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the subject of Haley attacks during the last debate, is also at 4 per cent. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is at 3 per cent, and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 1 per cent.
The poll comes after Trump brashly predicted that he will win Iowa’s Republican caucuses in January – tossing aside what he called advisers’ caution not to overstate expectations.
The former president’s confidence on Sunday came despite the fact he greeted his Iowa audience in Sioux City by the wrong name. He called the location ‘Sioux Falls,’ which is actually a city in South Dakota.
‘I go around saying of course we’re going to win Iowa. My people said you cannot assume that,’ Trump told his audience in the ornate Orpheum Theater in Sioux City, Iowa.
‘There’s no way Iowa is voting against Trump,’ he said, noting the economic benefits to farm states from the tariffs his administration imposed on China.
Audience members reacts as former President Donald Trump walks off stage after a commit to caucus rally. Donald Trump has predicted that he would win Iowa ‘s Republican presidential caucuses in January, tossing aside what he called advisers’ caution not to overstate expectations
And yet, when Trump took the stage he gave a hearty hello to a city more than 80 miles north, and over the South Dakota state line. He said: ‘Hello to a place where we’ve done very well, Sioux Falls. Thank you very much.’
Several minutes later, he realized the gaffe and corrected himself.
It was Trump’s eighth campaign event in Iowa in a little more than a month, part of the former president’s accelerated fall schedule leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses in January.
Trump’s speech in Sioux City, the heart of GOP-heavy western Iowa, followed events over the past month in eastern and central Iowa, where he has drawn thousands of people as his team has attempted to run a more organized campaign than in 2016.
At the time, Trump – a celebrity, real estate mogul – was unfamiliar with the process.
While Trump has for months attacked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the former president stepped up his criticism Sunday of former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a member of Trump’s Cabinet, as she has sparked new curiosity among Iowa Republicans and a bump in polls.
Trump mocked Haley, who is also the former governor of South Carolina, for saying after leaving the United Nations post that she would not run for president if Trump also did in 2024.
It was Trump’s eighth campaign event in Iowa in a little more than a month, part of the former president’s accelerated fall schedule leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses in January
Crowds listening to Trump speak on Sunday
Trump’s speech in Sioux City, the heart of GOP-heavy western Iowa, followed events over the past month in eastern and central Iowa, where he has drawn thousands of people as his team has attempted to run a more organized campaign than in 2016
Merchandise is seen in a vendor tent outside a Trump commit to caucus rally
Using the derogatory nickname ‘bird brain’ for her, he described Haley as ‘a highly overrated person.’
Trump went on to suggest that a reason he appointed Haley to his Cabinet when she was still governor was to help Henry McMaster, then-South Carolina’s lieutenant governor and a devout Trump supporter, become governor.
‘I liked it,’ Trump said. ‘I got two for the price of one.’
Trump’s more pointed criticism of Haley, centered on not her performance in his Cabinet but disloyalty to him, came a day after she criticized him for praising foreign strongmen and warned that his style of ‘chaos, vendettas and drama’ would be dangerous.
Though Haley has used the implied criticism of Trump without naming him for months as she’s campaigned in early-voting states, Saturday was her sharpest critique of the former president as she spoke before the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual meeting in Las Vegas.
Before Trump took the stage in Sioux City, he was endorsed by Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon who unsuccessfully sought the 2016 GOP nomination but who later served in Trump’s Cabinet as secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Carson’s endorsement might not seem noteworthy as a member of his Cabinet. However, some members quit Trump’s administration, including Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, in the aftermath of the January 6, 2021, siege of the U.S. Capitol.
Both officials cited Trump’s actions the day of the violent attack for their resignation.
In August, Trump made a grand entrance at Iowa State Fair – overshadowing Ron DeSantis and other contenders for the Republican presidential nomination who were trying to counter the power of the former president.