You probably haven’t noticed, given the paucity of coverage in the media, but the Democrats are also holding a primary election in New Hampshire today.
All the attention has been on the Republican contest in the Granite State, which will almost certainly confirm Donald Trump as the party’s presidential candidate and mark the end of the road for Nikki Haley’s bid to be the nominee. It’s already sounded the political death knell of Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
So, it’s not surprising the Republican primary has made all the headlines. But the Democratic contest might just generate news of its own by giving President Biden a bloody nose.
How come? Let me start with a little background.
Early last year, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), in its wisdom, decided to end over a century of tradition, during which New Hampshire had always been the first Democratic primary, by awarding that accolade to South Carolina for 2024.
The DNC cynically claimed New Hampshire was ‘too white’ and the Palmetto State more suitably ‘diverse’ because of its large black population and so more representative of the nation.
It’s not surprising the Republican primary has made all the headlines. But the Democratic contest might just generate news of its own by giving President Biden a bloody nose.
Biden was a big fan of the move. He’d come a poor fifth in the New Hampshire primary in 2020 and owed the state no favors.
Indeed, it was South Carolina which revived his ailing campaign, propelling him to the Democratic nomination and, eventually, the White House.
So, with presidential approval, South Carolina was duly promoted to pole position.
The New Hampshire Democrats were furious. The State Party Chairman described the DNC as less popular than the New York Yankees among his party faithful (New Hampshire avidly supports the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees’ deadly rivals).
In fact, they were so angry that they decided to proceed with their own primary without DNC approval. State law mandated that New Hampshire must always be first, they said.
The DNC described it as ‘meaningless’ because it wouldn’t even determine the state’s delegates at the Democratic convention. Local Democrats said they didn’t care — they were having a primary.
The only candidate of note to be running is Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman and a multi-millionaire businessman who could bankroll his own campaign. For a while he made no impact. At one rally he staged, nobody turned up.
By early January he was still languishing in the polls at 6 percent. The Democratic establishment dismissed him as a no-hoper.
But suddenly his campaign started to have traction. People packed out his rallies and he was holding three a day. Biden’s people started to panic.
Biden’s name is not on the ballot but a campaign to ‘write in’ his name on the ballot paper was ramped up. Over 1,000 local party activists were mobilized to encourage the write in. They have been desperately trying to raise the profile of the primary and encourage Biden supporters to go to the polls. They expect to win. But there’s winning and there’s winning — and some historical precedents to suggest the outcome could be more significant than most people realize.
The only candidate of note to be running is Dean Phillips (pictured), a Minnesota congressman and a multi-millionaire businessman who could bankroll his own campaign. For a while he made no impact. At one rally he staged, nobody turned up.
By early January he was still languishing in the polls. The Democratic establishment dismissed him as a no-hoper. But suddenly his campaign started to have traction. People packed out his rallies and he was holding three a day. Biden’s people started to panic.
Biden’s name is not on the ballot but a campaign to ‘write in’ his name on the ballot paper was ramped up. Over 1,000 local party activists have been desperately trying to raise the profile of the primary. They expect to win. But there’s winning and there’s winning – and some historical precedents to suggest the outcome could be more significant than most people realize.
Back in 1968, another Minnesota politician, Senator Eugene McCarthy, decided to run in the New Hampshire primary against President Johnson on an anti-Vietnam War ticket. Like Biden this year, Johnson wasn’t on the ballot paper and, again like Biden, a ‘write in’ campaign was organized for the president.
Johnson won but only by 48 percent to 42 percent. The media and many Democratic activists interpreted the result as, in effect, a humiliating defeat for the President.
Within two weeks Johnson had decided to throw in the towel and not seek his party’s renomination for a second full term.
An even earlier precedent is also interesting and relevant.
In 1952 an increasingly unpopular President Truman, like Johnson haunted by an interminable war (in this case the Korean War), was challenged in New Hampshire by Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver, who had gained national prominence by chairing televised congressional hearings on organized crime and corruption.
This time Truman was on the ballot — and he lost to Kefauver. Eighteen days later Truman announced he would not seek renomination as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Now, I do not argue that the Democratic New Hampshire primary of 2024 will have such a dramatic impact as the ones in 1952 and 1968.
Phillips is no McCarthy or Kefauver – and it’s also not clear where his candidacy would go after New Hampshire even if he won there.
But the anger of local Democrats against Biden and the DNC is palpable. Many are of a mind to give both a kicking.
If Phillips was to win or, more likely, come a strong second with Biden getting less than 50 percent of the vote, then there is virtually no chance our stubborn President would simply pull out, like Truman and Johnson.
But it would reinforce the views of many Democrats that Biden is the wrong candidate for 2024 and that it is a mistake of historic proportions to allow him to take his party’s nomination unchallenged.
Back in 1968, another Minnesota politician, Senator Eugene McCarthy (pictured), decided to run in the New Hampshire primary against President Johnson on an anti-Vietnam War ticket. Like Biden this year, Johnson wasn’t on the ballot paper and, again like Biden, a ‘write in’ campaign was organized for the president.
Johnson won but only by 48 percent to 42 percent. The media and many Democratic activists interpreted the result as, in effect, a humiliating defeat for the President. Within two weeks Johnson had decided to throw in the towel and not seek his party’s renomination for a second full term. (Picutred: McCarthy, left, and President Johnson at the White House).
In 1952 an increasingly unpopular President Truman was challenged in New Hampshire by Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver (pictured). This time Truman was on the ballot – and he lost to Kefauver. Eighteen days later Truman announced he would not seek renomination as the Democratic presidential candidate.
A majority even of registered Democrats think he is too old to run again. Among voters as a whole, his disapproval rating is at 58 percent, which is huge for a sitting president.
His cognitive decline continues apace for all to see. It will likely speed up as the demands of the campaign take their toll.
A setback in New Hampshire will be dismissed by his cheerleaders as of no importance, an insignificant bump on the clear road to his renomination as the Democratic presidential candidate for 2024. They might be right.
But should Phillips do well tonight, more and more Democrats will shake their heads and wonder, some aloud, why Biden has been given such a clear run to head a ticket many fear will go down to defeat in November.
Many Democrats running for state and federal office already fear their own chances of victory are diminished in a campaign led by Biden. The party risks ignoring New Hampshire’s unofficial, rebel primary at its peril.