Top Republican pollster Frank Luntz and Ron DeSantis warned that the low GOP turnout in the Iowa caucuses is a red flag for the party and that if Donald Trump doesn’t get ‘new voters’ then he will lose in the November election.
‘Trump is going to have to show that he can get people who didn’t vote for him in 2020, he’s got to get new voters or he loses,’ Luntz told DailyMail.com on Saturday during an event at Trump’s New Hampshire headquarters, where he was there to observe the primary process.
DeSantis also warned about Trump’s electability, saying the low Republican turnout in the Iowa caucuses, which the former president won by 30 points, was a warning sign.
‘It’s a warning sign for the party in November because the turnout was so abysmally low,’ the Florida governor said on Friday. ‘There’s terrible enthusiasm right now.’
‘It’s a warning sign for the party in November because the turnout was so abysmally low,’ Ron DeSantis said of the Iowa caucuses
Trump’s rallies and events are consistently standing room only.
But what Luntz, DeSantis and other are concerned about is that Trump only draws his loyal MAGA supporters and not the independents who can decide a presidential election. Many of those swung to Biden in 2020 and Trump needs to win them back in 2024.
The stark warnings come as Trump appears to be on the verge of wrapping up the Republican presidential nomination and in the lead in New Hampshire’s primary contest.
The latest poll by the Boston Globe and Suffolk University shows Trump with 53%, Nikki Haley with 36% and DeSantis with 7%. Additionally Senator Tim Scott endorsed Trump on Friday night, becoming the latest party official to back the former president.
But the closer Trump gets to the nomination, the louder the warning signs come from his rivals.
‘You have some folks on our side who don’t want to do the Trump thing again, and they checked out and they checked out of the caucus,’ DeSantis noted.
The 110,000 voters who participated in the 2024 Iowa caucuses accounts for just under 15% of the state’s 752,000 registered Republicans, according to the results. And it’s a far lower number than the 186,000 who came out in 2016.
DeSantis acknowledged it was cold and snowy in Iowa but still argued it was a bad sign.
‘It’s a question of what does that portend for November and how the Republican base is going to be energized or not energized?,’ DeSantis noted.
‘We know the Democrats probably wouldn’t be energized with Biden in the absence of a Trump nomination. I think that they would have trouble with turnout, but I think we also know that if Trump’s the candidate, I think you’re gonna see big time uptick in Democrat enthusiasm, and I think that’s going to give them an advantage.’
Republican pollster Frank Luntz, right, said both Trump and Biden need to convince voters ‘they’re worthy of four more years. And I really do mean that’
Donald Trump is leading in the polls for Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary
Haley has issued similar warnings about the former president, saying ‘chaos and drama’ follows him where ever he goes.
‘I’ve said it over and over again, rightly or wrongly chaos and drama follows him,’ she said in New Hampshire on Thursday. ‘My style is different. No vendetta, no drama, no vengeance.’
The results from New Hampshire on Tuesday will be closed watched as a measure of enthusiasm for the former president among Republican voters. The weather in the state is below freezing but otherwise clear of rain and snow.
Some New Hampshire voters, who supported Trump in past elections, said they were looking for new blood this year.
Peggy Chidester, 70, a Republican, said she was supporting Haley over Trump.
Chidester said she voted for Trump in 2020 ‘but it’s gotten so, I think, more divisive, more negative, more him pompous, versus what he was before. I think he was for change, he was a fresher person.’
But Trump still has his loyal MAGA army and they are showing up to see him.
William Smith was at Trump’s headquarters in Manchester on Saturday morning to make phone calls on behalf of the former president. He said he is a regular volunteer and will wait several hours in line at Trump rallies to make sure he gets inside to see the former president.
He voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and will again this year, citing Trump’s record as president.
‘Peace and prosperity are the two big pillars that hold up the world,’ he said, noting the Trump brought both to the country.
Team Trump dismisses the warnings.
Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Dailymail.com that the former president is the ‘best Republican to take on Joe Biden in November and turn the country around.’
‘President Trump has delivered results is our strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden. And we know that across America and we’re gonna get it done,’ Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik said on Saturday during a stop at Trump’s New Hampshire headquarters to rally the campaign’s volunteers.
It’s not just Republicans who face dire warnings for November’s general election.
Luntz warned the lack of enthusiasm is also a problem for Democrats and President Joe Biden.
‘We also have a significant number of Biden voters who will not vote for Joe Biden. So we have this really important segment represents 8% of America that’s moving in both directions and we don’t know now where they’re gonna land,’ he said.
‘The candidates have to be able to shoot they can have to prove that they’re worthy of four more years. And I really do mean that,’ he noted.
Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) rallies Trump volunteers at his Manchester headquarters on Saturday morning
Multiple polls have shown many Americans dread the thought of a 2020 rematch in November. But no serious contender has emerged to take on Biden for the Democratic nomination.
Biden opted not to be on the New Hampshire Democratic ballot after the Democratic National Committee said the state was violating its rules by holding its primary ahead of South Carolina’s contest, which the party deemed would be first in the 2024 primary cycle.
That means Biden’s name is not listed among the 21 Democrats appearing on the New Hampshire ballot, names that include Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, both of whom are running strong campaigns in the state.
But there is a movement among Biden supporters to have his name written in during Tuesday’s election.
After all, even though Tuesday’s results are nonbinding, political prognosticators will judge it as a measure of Biden’s support among his own party.
A weak showing – particularly against Phillips or Williamson – would be more bad news for president who faces a weak approval rating and concern from many Democrats that, at 81, he’s too old to run for another term.