Some of Donald Trump’s Iowa supporters are expressing last-minute jitters over his electability in the general, raising the possibility of a surprise upset from challengers Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.
Ahead of Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, Trump holds a commanding lead of 30+ points over his rivals in polls of Iowa GOP voters, and in all likelihood will win a majority of Iowa’s delegates.
Haley or DeSantis would need to peel off Trump supporters if they hope to drag the former president below the 50 percent mark — much less pull of an unlikely upset and seize a majority of their own.
Trump’s various legal woes have loomed over the primary, an issue Haley has highlighted by frequently mentioning ‘chaos’ following the former president, while DeSantis argues Trump’s legal issues would cost votes in the general election.
At least some Iowa voters who support Trump are weighing those concerns as they consider who to caucus for, according to a CNN report on Saturday.
The latest poll from Iowa showed Haley surging ahead of DeSantis — but both remain well behind Trump
Ron DeSantis departs after speaking at a Northside Conservatives Club Meeting at The District in Ankeny, Iowa on Friday, as Arctic-like temperatures hit the state
Pat Goodman, a 57-year-old voter from West Des Moines, told the outlet that he liked all of Trump’s policies, but was concerned that the former president couldn’t win support from independents in the general election.
‘I like all of the policies that he implemented as president, and I felt like his tweets were sometimes unpresidential,’ Goodman said.
‘I think that that drives other voters away from him, even though I think he was an excellent president for the things that he did and accomplished.’
Goodman said he is considering caucusing for DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman and staunch Trump defender, whose pitch to voters is that he would immediately pardon the former president if elected.
The latest poll from Iowa showed Haley, the former South Carolina governor, surging ahead of DeSantis, the governor of Florida.
The USA Today/Suffolk poll on Friday has Trump at 54 points, Haley at 20, and DeSantis at 13 percent. Other recent polls have had Haley and DeSantis tied, with both still trailing Trump by more than 30 points.
Iowa’s delegates are awarded proportionally, making the 50 percent mark a largely symbolic victory.
Although Trump heads into the Iowa caucuses on Monday with outsized expectations, the size of his win matters if he wants to deliver a knockout blow to key rivals.
Trump campaign advisers have sought to temper expectations by noting that the previous record win in a contested Republican caucus was Bob Dole’s 12.8-point margin in 1988.
But four political analysts interviewed by Reuters said Trump needs a more convincing victory closer to the 30 point-plus margin suggested by the polls to blunt Haley’s momentum.
A pickup truck is driven down a snow covered road under an Iowa Caucus sign on Friday
Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis in a new Iowa poll ahead of Monday’s caucuses
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is far ahead in Iowa surveys, was back in a Manhattan courtroom Thursday
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said Trump needs to win by at least 15 to 20 percentage points or risk losing the air of inevitability, a situation that could allow Haley or DeSantis to pick up momentum at a critical juncture in the race.
‘That’s a bare minimum for Trump. Anything below that shows – and will get blown up as – vulnerability,’ Heye said.
Chris LaCivita, co-manager of the Trump campaign, said he was confident that the ‘intensity’ of the former president’s base would translate into a big win despite the cold gripping the Midwestern state.
But he stopped short of predicting the kind of win suggested by the polls.
‘A win’s a win, but no one has ever won by more than… 12.8,’ LaCivita told reporters on Thursday.
One wild card is turnout. Reflecting a worry that his supporters will stay home given his comfortable polling lead, Trump has warned against complacency at recent rallies.
Another risk for Trump is a strong showing by Haley, who has been rising in the polls. If she were to secure second place, it could establish her as the clear alternative to Trump, giving her a boost in New Hampshire, analysts said.
Haley campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas would not quantify how close they hoped to come to Trump on Monday.
‘We will have a strong showing in Iowa and ride that momentum into New Hampshire,’ she said.