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Pupils are set to enjoy a bumper crop of A-level results next week as inflated grades become the ‘new normal’, a report predicts.
The paper, from the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at Buckingham University, suggests the proportion getting top grades could remain above pre-pandemic levels.
It means more than a quarter – up to 28 per cent – of entries may be awarded an A or A* grade.
Author Professor Alan Smithers raised concerns that grade inflation ‘may be creeping back in again’ following repeated attempts to bring it under control.
On Thursday, hundreds of thousands of sixth formers will pick up their A-level results and discover whether they have secured their university place.
Last year, 27.8 per entries got at A or A*, a record high outside of the freak pandemic years of 2020 to 2022.
This compares with 27.2 per cent in 2023 and 25.4 per cent in 2019.
Professor Smithers said: ‘A-level grades have a chance to settle down this year after the volatility of Covid and its aftermath.
‘They are likely to be close to last year’s where top grades were a percentage point or two above pre-Covid levels.
‘This may not sound very much but, in fact, was an extra 14,200 A*s and 21,300 A*/As.’
He said many of the factors which likely pushed up last year’s results were still in place.
These include a decision to raise top grades in languages to attract more entries.
In addition, there has been an increase in people taking maths, which is known to produce more high grades.
He added: ‘I think that last year, with its unexpected increase in top grades, could well be the beginning of a new norm, higher than that of pre-Covid.’
Last year’s record high was a surprise because the Government had originally said it would return grading to pre-pandemic standards.
After 2010, the then newly-formed exams regulator Ofqual was instructed to limit top grades to around a quarter of entries, to prevent grade inflation.
This Tory initiative followed years of soaring grades under New Labour.
However, during the pandemic, top grades ballooned to around half of entries due to exams being cancelled and teachers marking work.
Grading was then gradually reduced to close to pre-pandemic levels between 2022 and 2023.
Professor Smithers said A-level grades should have been ‘back to normal’ last year, but instead they rose again.
He added: ‘There has to be the suspicion that the inflation which bedevilled A-level grades in the days before Ofqual may be creeping back in again.’
In his report, Professor Smithers also suggested that ‘girls will do better than boys’ once again at the top A-level grades.
Last year, the proportion of girls’ A-level entries awarded A or higher was 28.0 per cent, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for boys’ entries – 27.6 per cent.
He said: ‘Sadly, the under-performance of boys is no more likely than in previous years to receive the attention it deserves.
‘They and the country would benefit considerably if ways could be found of ensuring that the potential of many boys is not wasted.’
His report also showed this year A-level entries for psychology and sociology are down, but entries for mathematics, physics and chemistry are up.
Professor Smithers said: ‘The swing towards maths and the sciences could be a response to the former government’s promotion of them.’
He added: ‘I wonder if there is growing recognition that these social sciences promise more than they deliver, whereas the quantitative may be hard but they are meaningful.’
A Department for Education spokesman said: ‘These claims are completely false.
‘It is vital that qualifications are rigorous, and we are confident in Ofqual’s work, as the independent regulator, to manage the risk of grade inflation and ensure this is not impacting standards.
‘This suggestion demonstrates a lack of understanding of Ofqual’s role and the work they do every year to ensure fairness, with this year being no different.’