Keir Starmer is frantically trying to limit a Labour revolt on welfare today with hours to go until a showdown vote.
Dozens of MPs are vowing to defy the PM in the Commons this evening despite him already having humiliatingly weakened the package of benefits curbs.
Although the scale of the rebellion is now far smaller than the 120-plus who originally signed a fatal amendment, it still looks set to be the biggest of Sir Keir’s premiership so far.
Cabinet sources told they expected the result would be ‘tight’ – even though no government has lost a piece of legislation at second reading stage since 1986.
Sir Keir gathered Cabinet to take stock of the grim situation this morning, telling ministers the reforms are ‘designed to help those who can work into employment and ensure dignity and security for those who can’t work’.
A truce that had been painstakingly thrashed out last week dramatically disintegrated yesterday amid claims that Sir Keir had reneged on the terms.
Ministers had agreed that no current Personal Independence Payment (Pip) or Universal Credit health element claimant would be worse off from the changes.
That reduced the planned savings from £5billion to £2.5billion by the end of the decade – taking a wrecking ball to Rachel Reeves’ hopes of balancing the books without more tax rises.
Even under the initial proposals the disability and health benefits bill was expected to keep rising.
But a rebel ringleader, Debbie Abrahams, said a promised review of the system had not been honoured by the government – warning she might now oppose the legislation.
Labour MPs lined up in the Commons to urged Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall to withdraw the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill altogether.
DWP estimates that the latest proposals would still push 150,000 extra people into poverty by 2030 angered many, even though it was lower than the 250,000 envisaged in the original plans.
The Tories have confirmed they will vote against the Bill, despite supporting a welfare spending crackdown.
That opens the door to Sir Keir’s massive majority of 166 being overturned – although most believe the government will scrape through.
Some 39 Labour MPs have signed a new fatal amendment overnight, with more than 80 needing to switch sides in theory to inflict a defeat.
The Speaker has selected the amendment, meaning that it will go to a vote at 7pm.
Rachel Maskell has warned ‘many more’ MPs have told her they still plan to oppose the Government’s plans.
She said she had no fear in voting down the Bill and felt a ‘moral duty’ to ‘speak up for’ disabled people.
‘Yes, I support getting disabled people into work where they’ve been discriminated and dismissed, of course that’s important, but when those people can’t work or need longer to prepare for work, it is vital we don’t remove their lifeline,’ she said.
‘Or else they’ll disappear further and further into the margins.’
But Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News: ‘I’d ask (colleagues) to support the Government on that basis, because clearly what we’ve got here is something which is better than the existing system.
Asked whether MPs would lose the whip for voting against the Government, he said he was ‘not aware of anything like that’ but ‘those issues are for the chief whip’.