Donald Trump will allow Vladimir Putin to keep almost all the territory he has seized from Ukraine under the terms of a proposed peace deal.
Putin would be required to freeze the current front line, allowing him to keep most of his gains – though, the country would be required to give up two small areas currently occupied by its troops.
Ukraine would regain unhindered access to the mouth of the Dnieper river and the second area of Kherson province would also require Russian withdrawal.
Officials from the US, Britain, European nations and Ukraine will meet in London today to push for a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, with US envoy General Keith Kellogg hoping to gain Ukraine’s agreement to the plan.
Kellogg will participate in today’s discussion, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who attended peace talks in Paris last week, is no longer able to join the meeting due to a ‘scheduling issue’.
It was unclear if Rubio’s absence means the US has downgraded its expectations for the talks after Trump said on Sunday he hoped Moscow and Kyiv would make a deal this week to end the three-year-old conflict.
But few diplomats considered that realistic given the significant gaps remaining. The expectations for a breakthrough were slim, despite pressure from Trump to make this a decisive moment.
If all goes well during today’s discussions, Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff will present the plan to Putin. Potential obstacles to the proposal include it offering no clear US security guarantee to Ukraine. Putin may also be unwilling to relinquish the area of territory proposed by Trump.
Sources familiar with Trump’s peace proposal told the Telegraph that points one and two cover an immediate ceasefire – which has already been accepted in principle by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Point three bans Ukraine from seeking membership of NATO, though it would still be free to join the EU.
In relation to safeguards against Putin invading, European countries may deploy an assurance force as a form of deterrence – though it is understood the plan does not commit the US to ensuring this is put in place.
Point four of the plan sees America offer recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the region of Ukraine which Putin annexed in 2014.
Recognising Russian control of Crimea would violate international law which states no country can annex the territory of another. No nation is supposed to recognise the change if land is seized.
In practice, however, international law has not always been acknowledged such as in the case of Israel. For example, the US said in 2019 it no longer considers Israeli settlements to be illegal.
Following the full-scale attack in February 2022, Russia captured large areas of four more provinces of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
The proposal would not formally recognise the occupied areas as being part of Russia but is understood to imply de facto US recognition.
A nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, the largest in Ukraine and currently held by Russian forces, would be transferred to American control. Zelensky on Tuesday said he would be ready to partner with the US to restore the plant, which is not operating.
Point six would see Ukraine sign the minerals deal, giving US companies access to the country’s natural resources.
And lastly, point seven would raise the possibility of a new relationship for America and Russia – lifting all US sanctions so the two countries can begin to work together on energy policy.
Witkoff will not participate in today’s talks, but on Washington’s parallel track of diplomacy with Moscow, he will meet with Putin this week in Russia, the White House said.
A spokesperson for British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of today’s talks: ‘The ball is in Russia’s court … We clearly support President Trump’s attempts to bring peace (and) Ukraine’s calls for Russia to commit a full ceasefire.’
The London meeting is a follow-up to a similar session in Paris last week where US, Ukrainian and European officials discussed ways to achieve peace.
The objective last week was for the Americans, Europeans and Ukrainians to formulate a joint position by trying to move Washington closer to the European and Ukrainian position, European diplomats said.
But some of Washington’s proposals were unacceptable to European countries and Kyiv, multiple sources said, leaving the sides divided.
The US framework that Rubio and Witkoff proposed in Paris received an encouraging reception, the Secretary of State said last week.
But the plan flies in the face of many of Britain’s stated objectives. For example, Sir Keir told Zelensky as recently as Valentine’s Day this year that he was committed to ‘Ukraine being on an irreversible path to NATO’ membership.
Beyond this, on February 17, the Prime Minister said he would deploy British forces to support a ‘lasting’ peace agreement in Ukraine.
He added: ‘But there must be a US backstop because a US security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again.’
Putin has said he is ‘satisfied with the proposal’ to block Ukraine from NATO.
However, the president would be required to abandon his goal of a ‘demilitarised’ Ukraine.
Beyond this, the plan would not stop Ukraine form building up its armed forces nor would it prevent European countries from continuing to supply the state with weapons.
A note of caution was sounded by Russia yesterday. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said on state television: ‘Probably it is not worth setting any rigid time frames and trying to get a settlement, a viable settlement, in a short-time frame.’
Ukrainian officials said they did not expect a final ‘take it or leave it’ offer in London.
Under Ukraine’s constitution, the country is not permitted to relinquish territory, be that by its parliament or government.
Only the votes of people in a referendum can do this – though martial law currently forbids referendums given the circumstances of war.
Foreign office sources have said they do not believe a deal will be struck in London.
European powers last week detailed to the US what they view as the non-negotiable aspects of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace accord, France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Tuesday, downplaying chances for a deal this week.
‘The hope is that in London they come up with some form of agreement whereby they can start a serious negotiating process. At the end of the day, Ukraine will have to leave something on the table,’ one European diplomat said.
Since taking office in January, Trump has upended US foreign policy, pressing Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire while easing many of the measures the Biden administration had taken to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine by May, arguing the US must end a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and risks a direct confrontation between the US and nuclear-armed Russia.
Europe has been increasingly concerned over the Trump administration’s overtures towards Moscow, after the failure so far of Trump’s efforts to secure a ceasefire in the war.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a significant turning point in the escalation of recent conflict that began eight years ago with the country’s annexation of Crimea.
Putin has attempted to justify the invasion saying the two countries have a long shared history, and cited fears Ukraine has now fallen into the western orbit.
A Ukrainian-speaking population in western parts of the country have traditionally favoured greater integration with Europe while a mostly Russian-speaking people in the east have wanted closer ties with Russia.
Russia has viewed Ukraine’s attempts to forge its own path as a sovereign state, such as through seeking to join the EU and NATO, as a form of aggression.
Putin has repeatedly said Russia would be willing to end the war if Ukraine drops its NATO ambitions.