Alert – How Pierre Poilievre blew huge poll lead that would have made him first conservative leader in a decade

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, seemed to have the race for prime minister on lock just a few months ago.

At the start of this year, the Liberals were in turmoil. Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January once it became clear he had lost the confidence of Canadians.

Back then, Poilievre and the Conservatives enjoyed a lead of more than 20 percentage points over the Liberals.

The Conservatives reached their peak level of support on January 20, the day Donald Trump was inaugurated as president for the second time. It’s been all downhill from there.

Three months later, the Liberals under new Prime Minister Mark Carney have about 43 percent support, while the Conservatives have fallen to around 38 percent.

Poilievre has lost his preferred foil, the unpopular Trudeau, in favor of Carney, a two-time central banker who is pitching himself as a steady hand at a time Canada’s longtime economic union with the United States in on a knife’s edge.

As prime minister, Carney has also gotten the opportunity to be the man seen standing up to Trump, who has deployed tariffs on Canada while also suggesting annexing the country entirely.

Poilievre, 45, has used Trump-like rhetoric, essentially promising to shake things up. Political operatives on the ground say he is misreading the moment.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, is struggling in the polls when just three months ago, his lead over the Liberals was thought to be unshakeable

The biggest change in the last three months has been Donald Trump becoming president again. Since January 20, Poilievre’s 20-point lead has vanished into a five-point deficit

‘With the amount of disruption and change coming at the country from Trump, the election has shifted from disruption to safe hands,’ Kory Teneycke, the strategist who led Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s re-election campaign, told The Wall Street Journal.

Carney was the head of Canada’s central bank during the 2008 financial crisis, then later led the Bank of England through Brexit.

‘I have a lot of experience with crises,’ Carney said on a French-language talk show April 13. ‘The situation is difficult, but that’s the reason I’m here.’

A poll taken by Abacus Data on April 16 shows that voters are buying what Carney is selling, with 43 percent of them believing he’s best able to handle Trump and the impact of his decisions. Just 36 percent thought the same for Poilievre.

Poilievre is unlike Trump in the sense that he’s a career politician. However, since seeing Trump’s success, Poilievre has undeniably borrowed some of his style flourishes and policy stances.

Poilievre became the Conservative Leader in September 2022 after vigorously supporting the blockade from Canadian truckers over COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Interestingly, Trump initially touted the efforts of Project Warp Speed, the government spending frenzy that helped bring to market both the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccine. 

His tone on the issue has changed substantially over the years as it’s become clear where his base stands on vaccines. 

He appointed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known anti-vaxxer, to lead the Department of Health. He also signed an executive order withdrawing funding from any schools that mandate COVID-19 vaccines.

Also like Trump, Poilievre has promised to cut taxes, make the government smaller, end climate change policies and put a stop to ‘wokeism’ in Canada’s military. He even uses the slogan ‘Canada First.’

David Coletto, Abacus Data’s chief executive officer, said mimicking Trump won’t do the trick for Poilievre.

Poilievre rose to prominence as the Conservative Leader after vigorously supporting the blockade from Canadian truckers over COVID-19 vaccine mandates

During a debate with Mark Carney (right) on April 17, Poilievre essentially called him a Trudeau clone that will only make those problems worse

‘They think he’s like Trump, or what he says and how he says it is just turning them off in the same way Trump turns them off,’ Coletto told the Journal.

In more recent public appearances, Poilievre has increasingly felt the need to distance himself from Trump and even criticize him.

‘We don’t really share anything in common,’ he said regarding the differences between his and Trump’s upbringing on an April 13 podcast interview. ‘He was born into a very wealthy millionaire family, and I was born in very humble beginnings. There’s a lot of policies that he has that I disagree with.’

Poilievre has been trying to keep the campaign focused on kitchen-table issues, like higher grocery bills and escalating housing costs.

During a debate with Carney on April 17, Poilievre essentially called him a Trudeau clone that will only make those problems worse.

Still, Canadians remain worried about tariffs, which could raise the price of various consumer goods.

Poilievre’s best hope to win next Monday’s election could be Trump’s decision to largely spare Canada from the heaviest tariffs.

Most goods Canada imports from the US are covered under the USMCA trade deal and therefore have complete tariff exemptions. 

Canada also wasn’t hit with the so-called reciprocal tariffs that had some countries paying as much as 49 percent to sell products to the US. 

And although Canada and Mexico were initially lumped in with China as countries he wanted to reign in on trade, Trump has now settled on China as the main target.