For many years, Kim Jong Un was roundly dismissed by many Western leaders as a serious threat to peace and stability on the world stage despite his sabre-rattling rhetoric and promises of nuclear confrontation.
The chubby North Korean chief’s carefully staged photo ops with legions of fawning women and cringeworthy state media montages of him admiring missile tests from behind a pair of aviators did little to remedy his ‘all bark, no bite’ image.
Yet the dynastic leader’s dogged pursuit of a devastating nuclear arsenal and closer ties with Russia and China now seems to be paying off – and the West has been forced to take notice.
For months, North Korea is believed to have supplied Vladimir Putin’s forces with a steady stream of artillery shells and missiles used against Ukrainian forces and defenceless civilians alike.
In September, the nation’s state news agency unveiled to the world the first-ever glimpse into a facility producing weapons-grade uranium for the so-called Hermit Kingdom’s intercontinental ballistic missiles.
And this week, Kyiv, Seoul and Washington sounded the alarm that thousands of North Korean troops are training in Russia and may soon join Moscow’s soldiers in direct conflict with the Ukrainian defenders.
Now, as the Ukrainian President warns that North Korea’s involvement could hasten the eruption of World War III, charts the downward spiral of Kim’s relations with the West and examines the potential fallout if Pyongyang’s troops step onto European soil.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, centre, walks around a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a state-produced video showcasing the power of Pyongyang’s nuclear forces
Since 2019, Kim has sought closer ties with the likes of Russia and China while ordering military scientists and his massive defence industry to embark on a campaign of rapid armament
Putin and Kim clink glasses amid the former’s visit to Pyongyang
Test-firing of North Korea’s Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile at Pyongyang International Airport
Footage purportedly shows North Korean troops in Russia ahead of deployment to Ukraine
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter attend a photo session with the scientists, engineers, military officials and others involved in the test-fire of the country’s new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)
The Ukrainian President has warned that North Korea’s involvement could hasten the eruption of World War III
As unthinkable as it seems now, there was a time not so long ago when the prospect of North Korea and the West breaking decades of mutual disdain in favour of rapprochement appeared somewhat legitimate.
After Kim Jong Un took power in 2011 following the death of his father Kim Jong Il, the rocky relations between his nation and the US plunged to new lows.
The Obama administration battered Pyongyang with sanctions in an attempt to force Kim into a frustrated submission by abandoning his ruthless pursuit of nuclear weapons and radical militarisation – one that ultimately proved futile.
Little changed at first when Donald Trump won the keys to the White House in 2016 – the braggadocios businessman was noticeably confrontational with the North Korean leader, branding him the ‘Little Rocket Man’.
The cutting moniker – a reference to Kim’s incessant missile tests and less-than-imposing physical stature – was an instant hit and the dictator has been powerless to escape it ever since.
But before long their relationship began to thaw, and the world in 2018 witnessed a landmark moment when Trump became the first US president to ever meet a North Korean leader when the pair came face to face at a summit in Singapore.
That moment, which analysts heralded as Washington’s recognition of North Korea as a legitimate state, triggered what looked to be a dramatic shift in bilateral relations.
Pyongyang’s dynastic chief engaged in a series of summits and talks with US diplomats and southern counterparts in which, by some accounts, he appeared genuinely keen to repair relations with the West.
North Korea joined other nuclear powers in agreeing to end nuclear testing in 2018 when Kim claimed he had ‘completed’ nuclearisation and imposed a moratorium on further operations.
And a year after their first meeting, Trump made history again when he held a meeting with Kim in the demilitarised zone separating North Korea from the South.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump prepare to shake hands at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone, South Korea, June 30, 2019
This undated picture released from North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) inspecting a launching drill of the medium-and-long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center left, walks around Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with one of his military chiefs
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the National Defense University in Pyongyang, North Korea, October 7, 2024
South Korea’s former president Moon Jae In revealed in his memoirs that in meetings with US and South Korean diplomats, Kim expressed upset at the ‘global mistrust’ of his nation and even considered embarking on a nuclear disarmament programme in exchange for sanctions relief and a better relationship with the West.
Moon even said that Ju Ae – one of three children fathered by Kim who many believe is being groomed as his successor – was a key motivating factor behind this drive, alleging that the North Korean leader once ‘mentioned that he has a daughter and doesn’t want her generation to live with the burden of nuclear weapons’.
But Trump’s talks were ultimately unsuccessful, and shortly after the 2019 meeting any glimmer of hope that Pyongyang and Washington could reconcile simply evaporated when the ‘rocket man’ announced he had lifted the moratorium on nuclear testing and vowed to plough ahead.
Ever since, Kim has pursued a much more hawkish policy, seeking closer ties with the likes of Russia and China while ordering military scientists and his massive defence industry to embark on a campaign of rapid armament.
Now, just five years on from the handshake in the DMZ, North Korea’s relations with the West are at their lowest ebb.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivering a speech at Kim Jong Un University of National Defence for its 60th founding anniversary in Pyongyang, where he warned he would take action against the US and South Korea if they continued to provoke North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae attend a celebration of the 79th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, October 10, 2024
Kim and his daughter Ju Ae watch an intercontinental ballistic missile launching from an undisclosed location in North Korea
Since adopting an aggressive nuclear doctrine in 2022, North Korea has repeatedly vowed to use nuclear weapons first if it perceives the leadership in Pyongyang as under threat.
Last year saw the pariah state conduct a record number of missile tests and Kim has in recent months routinely delivered rousing speeches ordering his troops to prepare for a future conflict.
In April, his forces reportedly conducted North Korea’s first ever ‘nuclear trigger’ drills which involved simulating an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) counterattack.
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First-ever images of North Korea's uranium enrichment plant revealed
Then last month, North Korea’s media unveiled to the world a glimpse into a facility producing weapons-grade uranium as Kim ordered his scientists and military officials to ‘exponentially’ increase the number of nuclear weapons at his disposal.
A selection of state media photos showed Kim clad in all-black being briefed by scientists and a pair of military men while walking through long lines of tall grey tubes.
The Korean Central News Agency didn’t say when Kim visited the facilities, nor did it reveal where they are located.
But it was the pariah state’s first disclosure of a uranium-enrichment facility since it showed one at Yongbyon to visiting American scholars in 2010 – and the first time it has ever published pictures to the world.
While the latest unveiling is likely an attempt to apply more pressure on the US and its allies, the images could provide outsiders with a valuable source of information for estimating the amount of nuclear ingredients that North Korea has produced.
Experts also said the sudden public disclosure of the North’s uranium enrichment facility could be intended to impact the US presidential election in November.
The images are ‘a message to the next administration that it will be impossible to denuclearise North Korea’, according to Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
‘It is also a message demanding other countries to acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear state,’ he added.
A selection of state media photos showed Kim clad in all-black being briefed by scientists and a pair of military men while walking along long lines of tall grey tubes
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un meet in Pyongyang, June 19, 2024
A leaked video allegedly shows North Korean troops in Russia being kitted out with military equipment
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un aims a weapon as he visits a training base
In recent days, North Korea’s standoff with the West ramped up to new levels.
After months of having provided artillery shells and ammunition sorely needed to keep up Russia’s furious rate of fire grinding Ukraine’s defenders down, Kyiv and Seoul sounded the alarm that thousands of troops from North Korea had arrived in Russia.
Moscow and Pyongyang dismissed the claims as fabrication, but Ukraine, the US and South Korea all insist their intelligence puts thousands of North Korean soldiers on Russian soil.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby declared on Wednesday that Washington is not certain whether the troops are headed for the frontline, but added: ‘If these North Korean troops are employed against Ukraine ‘they will become legitimate military targets’.
Zelensky meanwhile has warned that the participation of a third country could escalate the conflict into a world war, and Kyiv is already preparing as though combating North Korea in its territory is inevitable.
Ukraine’s ‘I Want to Live’ project, a hotline encouraging Russian soldiers to surrender, published a video in Korean on Wednesday calling for North Korean soldiers to give up.
‘We call for the soldiers of the Korean People’s Army, who were sent to help the Putin regime. You should not die senselessly on someone else’s land. There is no need to repeat the fate of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who will never return home!’ it said.
An injection of 10,000 North Korean troops, which is what both Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence have claimed, ‘could significantly destabilise Ukraine’s defence and greatly accelerate the advancement of Russian forces,’ said Glib Voloskyi, an analyst from a Ukrainian think tank, Come Back Alive Initiatives Center.
But the reported figures of North Korean troop numbers vary wildly, with US intelligence putting the number at 3,000.
And though Russian military sources who spoke to the BBC confirmed North Korean soldiers had indeed arrived in the Far East, they said the number was ‘nowhere near 3,000’.
In any case, Western defence officials are treating the prospect very seriously.
‘If they’re co-belligerents — if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf — that is a very, very serious issue,’ US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
‘It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.’
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024
A new 600mm multiple rocket launcher is test-fired at an undisclosed location in North Korea
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, foreground right, attend the official welcome ceremony in the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un ride an Aurus car in Pyongyang, North Korea in this image released by the Korean Central News Agency June 20
Zelensky, following a meeting with defence officials on Friday, said North Korean troops could be sent to fight Ukrainian troops this weekend.
‘According to intelligence reports, on 27-28 October, Russia will use the first North Korean military in combat zones,’ he said in a statement on social media.
‘The actual involvement of North Korea in hostilities should be met not with a blind eye and confused comments, but with tangible pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang to comply with the UN Charter and to punish escalation,’ he added.
A senior official within the Ukrainian president’s office said the North Korean troops could be deployed in battle either to the Russian region of Kursk or in eastern Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview aired Friday on state television that it was up to Moscow how it uses the treaty’s clause on mutual military assistance.
‘What action we take with this clause – that’s still under question. We are in touch with our North Korean friends,’ Putin said.
‘I mean to say that it’s our sovereign decision, whether we use something or not – where, how – whether we need this, or we, for example, only carry out some exercises, training, passing on some experience – that’s our business,’ he added.