Anthony Albanese’s support has plunged among women and middle-aged voters as the Prime Minister loses support in key states that decided the last election, two polls have revealed.
The cost of living crisis is hurting Labor after the Reserve Bank in November raised interest rates for the 13th time in 18 months.
With inflation still high, Labor is annoying those aged between 35 to 49 battling surging mortgage repayments, the latest Newspoll found.
Women, the group that turned on former PM Scott Morrison in 2022, are now also turning away from Labor.
Mr Albanese’s favourability has also fallen in two key battlegrounds – NSW and Western , where Labor gained four Perth seats from the Liberal Party at the last election.
Labor is behind in Queensland, where the party has no seats in regional areas that have long voted Labor at a state level.
The survey, conducted for The n, was based on a poll of 3,655 voters from October 31 to December 15.
Another survey by the Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, looked at the responses from 4,818 voters over three surveys from October to December.
Anthony Albanese ‘s government has lost support in key demographics ahead of the New Year, with the Prime Minister himself falling out of favour in some states
Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition fell for those aged 35 to 49 in the latest Newspoll.
This election-deciding demographic saw its support fall from 56-44 to 53-47.
These are the voters with a mortgage and young children who have suffered the most financially, with 12 of the RBA’s rate 13 rises occurring since Labor came to power in May 2022.
More women are also turning away from the Albanese government, with 36 per cent backing the Coalition compared with 30 per cent giving their first preference to Labor.
Nationally, support for Mr Albanese over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton fell from 51-31 to 46-35, with the PM losing favour in NSW and Queensland.
Within NSW his approval rating fell from 50 per cent to 39 per cent.
In Queensland, Mr Dutton has gained support as the preferred PM, with 41 per cent of voters surveyed by Newspoll backing the fellow Queenslander, compared with 40 per cent endorsing Mr Albanese.
Labor now holds just five seats out of 30 in Queensland, with nothing north of Brisbane, unlike previous Labor PMs.
But NSW, the Prime Minister’s home state, is considered the most important state for Labor because it’s home to 47 House of Representatives MPs out of 151.
Of Labor’s 20 most marginal seats federally, ten are in NSW, including Gilmore on the South Coast with a 0.2 per cent margin.
Labor gained three seats from the Liberal Party in NSW at the last election, including Reid, Bennelong and Robertson.
Young voters, however, are still overwhelmingly backing Labor despite the rental crisis, with the government having a 66-34 lead over the Opposition.
Across all age groups and states, the Coalition has a higher primary vote of 36 pr cent compared with Labor’s 34 per cent.
But after preferences from the Greens, the Newspoll showed Labor leads vote of 52-48.
Mr Albanese has also maintained his lead in Western with his party improving its two-party preferred lead of 53-47 per cent to 54-46 per cent.
Some 43 per cent prefer Mr Albanese to be prime minister compared to 32 per cent who voted for Mr Dutton.
The Resolve Political Monitor, however, showed support for Mr Albanese dipping in Western , with the primary vote falling from 38 per cent to 34 per cent – lower than what it was at the last election.
In Queensland, Peter Dutton has gained support as the preferred PM, with 41 per cent of voters behind him
In contrast to the Newspoll, the Resolve Political Monitor poll had 39 per cent of Queenslanders backing Mr Albanese, while Mr Dutton had less support at 32 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote in Queensland has, however, slipped from 37 per cent to 33 per cent.
Mr Albanese was the preferred PM of 43 per cent of voters, compared with Mr Dutton’s 27 per cent.
For female voters, 42 per cent rated Mr Albanese’s performance as poor in the Resolve survey, while 39 per cent said the same for Mr Dutton.
But the cost of living-crisis but it could be a distant memory when voters go the polls in 2025.
The Commonwealth Bank is expecting six interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.
This would take the Reserve Bank cash rate down from a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent to 2.85 per cent by late 2025.
ANZ expecting November inflation to fall to 4.1 per cent – down from October’s 4.9 per cent level.
That means no rate hike in February with Treasury expecting wages to finally outpace inflation in 2024 for the first time since 2021.
Economist Stephen Koukoulas, who was former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard’s economic adviser, said Labor was likely to be re-elected either with a majority or in minority with support from the teals.
‘Labor will win that election based on likely economic conditions: solid wages growth, low inflation, falling interest rates and budget surpluses,’ he said on X.